Everyman's Fantasy

We're through one week of the season, and for the first time in years I don't find myself on the wrong side of .500. VICTORY! Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, far more pressing matters (like driving 20 dozen baseballs 9 hours to Germany) hampered me from making any predictions whatsoever. Not that I'm complaining. It allowed me to salvage my pride, and bank account, for one more week.

Before getting to NFL picks, a quick scouring of World Series futures reveals an interesting value play. San Francisco, which now sits only 2.5 games out of the NL Wild Card and boasts the best rotation in all of baseball (Lincecum, Cain, a rejuvenated Barry Zito, and Mr. No-No Johnathan Sanchez) are a steal at 50/1. If they can sneak by the "dropping like a Rock-ies", their staff gives them as good a chance as any in the wide-open NL. But snap them up quick, because that line will be changing quickly, especially as they inch closer to the wild card lead.

Onto the NFL:


The Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright: Houston Texans

"You Can Put It On the Board!" Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO

As always, the spreads are courtesy of 5dimes and the home teams are in CAPS.

ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina- The more intriguing bet involving this game is the over/under for Jake Delhomme turnovers. Take the over on anything in single digits.

St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.

Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.

New Orleans (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Combined, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, and Jeff Garcia have 12 Pro Bowl appearances. Unfortunately, all three will also be starting the game on the bench for the Birds. Drew Brees vs. Kevin Kolb in a pick'em? That's a no-brainer.

New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or one less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.

Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY- The classic “who looked better in defeat” question? I'm going with the Raiders, whose running game was very productive against San Diego last week. Baby steps, Oakland, baby steps.

Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.

GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati- After just finishing the season finale of Hard Knocks, its awfully tough to pick against the Bengals. But then I remember its the Bengals. Silver lining: everyone's a winner if Ochocinco does the Lambeau Leap.

Minnesota (-10.5) over DETROIT- It's entirely possible (probable?) that Adrian Peterson could have over 400 yards rushing after Week 2. The assault on 2,105 (sans goggles) gains real legitimacy courtesy of the Detroit Lions.

BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay- Tampa Bay with Adrian Peterson (who they passed on in the 2007 draft): fun to watch, explosive on offense, Super Bowl contenders. Tampa Bay with Gaines Adams (who they drafted #5 in 2007): Not so much.

SAN FRANCISCO (pick'em) over Seattle- It's Christmas in September with two pick'ems in one week. Lest I remind you again, Shaun Hill is now 9-3 as a starter.

Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl paricipants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.

DENVER (-3) over Cleveland- After Week 12 last season, many in the football world were pegging the Broncos as darkhorse Super Bowl contenders. 4 straight losses, the trade of your franchise quarterback, a hissy fit by your star wideout, and a lucky Week 1 victory over the Bungles later and they are neutral field equals with the lowly Cleveland Browns. They're bad, but not that bad.

SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Baltimore- Can San Diego contain the juggernaut that is Joe Flacco? Uhh, yes.

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)

Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI- I've hammered the road team all week, why stop now?