Everyman's Fantasy

Lock of the Week:

San Diego (-4) over SEATTLE- Exactly what has Seattle done to instill any type of confidence in a voter? Oh, they walloped San Francisco (who is much worse than originally expected) and got crushed by Denver (who is only marginal). Bolts, baby.

Season: 0-1

Underdog to Win Outright:

Titans (+2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS- A 50/50 toss-up between two of the more underwhelming teams so far. Take the points.

Season: 1-0

Cleveland (+12) over BALTIMORE- Seems too high when the team giving 12 points has only scored 10 points each time out this season.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) over TAMPA BAY- A team quarterbacked by Charlie Batch is still the toughest opponent the Bucs have faced yet. Hard to see their undefeated season continuing.

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA- When fans should be clamoring for the return of Jake Delhomme, you know your quarterback situation has gotten ugly. Hard to see the Panthers winning many games with Clausen or Moore.

Atlanta (+3) over NEW ORLEANS- New Orleans has yet to win a game by more than 3 points and Atlanta is better than either the Vikings or the Niners. New Orleans should win, but it will go down to the wire.

Detroit (+13) over MINNESOTA- Detroit is fun to watch but won’t win many games this year. I also don’t expect them to get blown out by 13 that often either, especially not against a Vikings team that Vegas remains oddly bullish on.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Dallas- Wade Phillips doesn’t strike me as the type of coach that can pull his squad out of a crisis, which is where the Cowboys stand right now. After losing to their “little brother”, the crisis becomes full-blown and Mr. Phillips could find himself canned.

Washington (-4.5) over ST. LOUIS- My affinity for Steven Jackson and complete disdain for everything Washington makes it very tempting to pick St. Louis. But a look at the schedules persuaded me otherwise; while Washington has beaten Dallas and should have beaten Houston, St. Louis has only managed to hang tough with Arizona and Oakland.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Not being able to stop the run could be a problem for Philly with MJD coming to town but for whatever reason, the Jags don’t scare me. Sure, they beat Denver in Week 1, but I expect to see a lot more of their Week 2 performance against San Diego from them.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER- Peyton Manning vs. Kyle Orton should never be only a 5.5 point spread.

ARIZONA (-4.5) over Oakland- Two straight playoff berths and only one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance and you only giving 4.5 at home to Oakland? All 55 Cards fans must be very depressed right now. Derek Anderson could be throwing blindfolded (really, would it make a difference?) and the Cards should be able to win by 10.

New York Jets (-1) over MIAMI- Is there a more confusing football team than the Jets? Preseason darlings who laid an egg in Week 1 and then came back and smacked the Pats in Week 2. While I can see them squeaking by Miami this week, I think the roller coaster ride will continue all season and everyone’s chic Super Bowl pick will miss the playoffs.

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO- Green Bay hasn’t looked great (it was Buffalo, people). Jay Cutler has. That is why this line is so low. Take it while you can and laugh all the way to the bank.

KANSAS CITY (+1.5) over San Francisco- When you are 0-2 and celebrated an overtime loss like it was a win you shouldn’t be favored on the road. No, I don’t believe in the Chiefs, but come on, shouldn’t they be given a little credit for a 2-0 start? And didn’t Arrowhead at least used to be tough to play in?

NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) over Buffalo- This is a huge line, and probably too big. But, I can’t seem to sell myself on any reason to pick Buffalo. They really could be the worst team in the league. Oh, right, Cleveland still exists.

_{Week 1: 7-8}

_{Season: 7-8}

Underdog to Win Outright:

Baltimore (+1) over NEW YORK JETS

Lock of the Week:

Indianapolis (pick'em) over HOUSTON



Carolina (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Miami (-2.5) over BUFFALO

Atlanta (pick'em) over PITTSBURGH

Detroit (+7.5) over CHICAGO

NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) over Cincinnati

TAMPA BAY (-2) over Cleveland

Denver (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Oakland (+7) over TENNESSEE

Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA

San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE

Arizona (-3) over ST. LOUIS

Dallas (-3) over WASHINGTON

San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY

NFC East

Dallas 11-5

New York Giants 9-7

Philadelphia 9-7

Washington 7-9

NFC North

Green Bay 12-4

Minnesota 9-7

Detroit 6-10

Chicago 4-12

NFC South

New Orleans 13-3

Atlanta 11-5

Tampa Bay 5-11

Carolina 4-12

NFC West

Arizona 10-6

San Francisco 8-8

St. Louis 5-11

Seattle 3-13

Playoff Seeds:

1. New Orleans
2. Green Bay
3. Dallas
4. Arizona
5. Atlanta
6. New York Giants

Wild Card Round

(3)Dallas over (6)New York Giants

(5)Atlanta over (4)Arizona

Divisional Round

(2)Green Bay over (3)Dallas

(1)New Orleans over (5)Atlanta

NFC Championship

(1)New Orleans over (2)Green Bay

AFC East

New England 11-5

New York Jets 9-7

Miami 8-8

Buffalo 4-12

AFC North

Cincinnati 10-6

Baltimore 10-6

Pittsburgh 9-7

Cleveland 4-12

AFC South

Indianapolis 14-2

Houston 11-5

Tennessee 8-8

Jacksonville 5-11

AFC West

San Diego 13-3

Denver 7-9

Oakland 5-11

Kansas City 2-14

Playoff Seeds:

1. Indianapolis

2. San Diego

3. New England

4. Baltimore

5. Cincinnati

6. Houston

Wild Card Round

(3)New England over (6)Houston

(4)Baltimore over (5)Cincinnati

Divisional Round

(1)Indianapolis over (4)Baltimore

(3)New England over (2)San Diego

AFC Championship

(1)Indianapolis over (3)New England

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis 31 New Orleans 24

Awards:

MVP: Tom Brady

ROY: Jahvid Best

Coach of the Year: Sean Payton

Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson

Two straight disappointing weeks are quickly wiped away with a sterling Week 14 performance. With only the Monday night game left, I'm sitting at 10-4 and have hit both the underdog and lock of the week. Since I'm posting this after the fact, I'll once again split them into winners and losers.

Winners:

Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
San Diego (+3.5) over DALLAS
Season (including this week): 8-4

"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Green Bay (-4) over CHICAGO
Season (including this week): 8-3

MINNESOTA (-6) over Cincinnati

New York Jets (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY

Buffalo (-2.5) over KANSAS CITY

BALTIMORE (-15) over Detroit

Washington (-1) over OAKLAND

HOUSTON (-8) over Seattle

TENNESSEE (-14) over St. Louis

Philadelphia (pick'em) over NEW YORK GIANTS


Losers:

Denver (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS

New Orleans (-11) over ATLANTA

JACKSONVILLE (-1) over Miami

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Carolina

This week: 10-4
Season (including this week): 91-78-2

After two weeks, I've finally decided to transfer my scribbled Week 13 picks from the back of an unpaid bill to the internet. Who would have guessed unemployment could be so busy? Usually, I'd be worried that people would doubt the credibility of the picks since they weren't posted prior to the games but those fears fly out the window after you see my record.

Looking back on Week 12, there was not much to give thanks about during the holiday weekend. A 0-3 Thanksgiving day record was only a preview of what was to come, as I lost both my Lock of the Weeks picks, my Underdog pick, and went a total of 5-10, by far the worst week yet this season. Things got only marginally better during Week 13:

Winners:

Denver (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY

Oakland (+16) over PITTSBURGH

Philadelphia (-4) over ATLANTA

Detroit (+15) over CINCINNATI

CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay

St. Louis (+10) over CHICAGO

GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore


Losers:

Houston (pick'em) over JACKSONVILLE

Tennessee (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS

New Orleans (-9.5) over WASHINGTON

San Diego (-14.5) over CLEVELAND

San Francisco (pick'em) over SEATTLE

Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA

Dallas (pick'em) over NEW YORK GIANTS

New England (-5) over MIAMI

Week 12: 5-10
Week 13: 7-8
Season: 81-74-2

I slept on my picks more than a day, but after going 0-3 in the Thanksgiving games, I needed some additional time to get my head straight. Even with four days to think about the games, the results don't seem too clear, but I'll precede with the picks anyway.

CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland- This line seems high, and it is, but I'm not buying the Cleveland rejuventation hype. What they did last week was against Detroit, not division-leading Cincy. Also, after Cincy's last loss (a similar "let-down game" loss to Houston), they came back and thrashed the Bears 45-10. I think they make a similar statement this week.

Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- Take. The. Points.

Pittsburgh (+8.5) over BALTIMORE- Now that we know the line for this game, I can make a real prediction...and I'm still staying with Pittsburgh. I always liked Dennis Dixon, and while he may not be the long term answer, I think he comes out and has one of those "where did he come from" type games against an aging Baltimore D.

New England (pick'em) over NEW ORLEANS- I've wanted to pick New Orleans all week, but every time I've attempted to justify it, it doesn't seem right. The reasons; they are undefeated, they are at home, aren't real football reasons, and I think that New England is a better football team. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if New Orleans won, but I just wouldn't bet against the Pats, who have been in these situations before.

So far this week: 0-3

Your Week 12 picks are here, and in plenty of time for the Thanksgiving Day games. Last week's 9-6 week felt good, but was dampened a little by Arizona's failure to cover and Atlanta's valiant but unsuccessful upset bid against the Giants. You'll note that there are three games not picked below: Cincy-Cleveland, Carolina-New York Jets, and the granddaddy of them all, New England-New Orleans. I've decided to sleep on those three games and post them tomorrow.

Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
Last week, I didn't feel any underdogs could pull the upset. This week, in the spirit of the holiday of Thanks, I'm giving you two.

Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO- Not sure why San Fran is favored in this game. Jax is on a three game winning streak and is currently sitting #5 in the AFC. Sure, I have a vested interest in them now that I've futured them at 150/1, but I don't think that clouds my vision too much. Why wouldn't Jacksonville win this game? San Fran isn't that good.

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle- The Rams best offensive weapon? Steven Jackson. Seattle's? Justin Forsett, a man who started out the season behind TJ Duckett and Julius Jones on the depth chart. Moneyline this baby!
Last Week: 0-1
Season: 7-2

“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO- Just like Jacksonville, I feel like Miami is quietly sneaking up on people. They aren't good enough to make the playoffs, especially with Ronnie Brown out, but they are overshadowed in the AFC East by the Pats. While everyone else lumps the rest of the teams in division together as just mediocre, I think that Miami is a step above Buffalo, and this game should prove it.
Last Week: 1-0
Season: 7-2

MINNESOTA (-12.5) over Chicago- I said last week that all they did was cover big spreads, and lo and behold, they hammered Seattle. Why get off that gravy train now?

Arizona (+2.5) over Tennessee- As a pick'em, I was slightly hesitant to take my boys. I take the fact that the line has slid to +2.5 in the last four hours as a sign from above. Combine that premonition with Kurt Warner's return and it's like God himself has ordained this game.

SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City- Great win for the Chiefs last week, who have been playing inspired ball lately, but the Chargers are just too hot right now.

Washington (+10) over PHILADELPHIA- Taking Washington makes me want to vomit. Taking Philadelphia to cover a 10 point spread makes it actually happen.

New York Giants (-7) over DENVER- There are about 600 quarterbacks I'd rather have pull my team out of full tail-spin mode than Chris Simms. And Kyle Orton isn't one of them.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) over BALTIMORE- For the first time all year, I've had to go outside of 5dimes to get a line. Only BETUS had it offered, and they had the line at 2.5. Pittsburgh is desperate, but if Big Ben can't go, it falls on Dennis Dixon. Who knows where to go with this? I'll put faith in the “Pittsburgh way”, regardless of quarterback.

I now welcome you to the “This Line is Too High” portion of your programming:

DETROIT (+12.5) over Green Bay- 12.5 points on the road after a short week? It's the Lions, but come on.

Oakland (+14.5) over DALLAS- Bruce Gradkowski keeps this game under 14.5 on spunk alone. He's like Jeff Garcia without the Pro Bowl appearances and Playmate wife.

Tampa Bay (+13.5) over ATLANTA- A team who just lost their last two games shouldn't be favored by this much.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 69-56-2