I slept on my picks more than a day, but after going 0-3 in the Thanksgiving games, I needed some additional time to get my head straight. Even with four days to think about the games, the results don't seem too clear, but I'll precede with the picks anyway.
CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland- This line seems high, and it is, but I'm not buying the Cleveland rejuventation hype. What they did last week was against Detroit, not division-leading Cincy. Also, after Cincy's last loss (a similar "let-down game" loss to Houston), they came back and thrashed the Bears 45-10. I think they make a similar statement this week.
Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- Take. The. Points.
Pittsburgh (+8.5) over BALTIMORE- Now that we know the line for this game, I can make a real prediction...and I'm still staying with Pittsburgh. I always liked Dennis Dixon, and while he may not be the long term answer, I think he comes out and has one of those "where did he come from" type games against an aging Baltimore D.
New England (pick'em) over NEW ORLEANS- I've wanted to pick New Orleans all week, but every time I've attempted to justify it, it doesn't seem right. The reasons; they are undefeated, they are at home, aren't real football reasons, and I think that New England is a better football team. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if New Orleans won, but I just wouldn't bet against the Pats, who have been in these situations before.
So far this week: 0-3
When do you know that you are witnessing an unprecedented NFL season? When six of the 13 games played have lines over 10 points? When every line for an entire week is either a three and a half point line or below (signifying a great game) or above a 10 point line (signifying a blowout)? When the Detroit Lions, who are 1-22 in their last 23 games, open as a 9.5 point FAVORITE over St. Louis, who have lost 17 straight, and the line swings six points towards the Rams? Yep, that's when. I ask you, who in their right mind is betting on a game between two teams who have both had 17 game losing streaks in the last year?
It keeps getting wilder and wilder each week, and I think this may be the week that the linesmakers finally catch up to us. After a cursory glance over the lines, none of the games jump out as “duh” picks, and confidence is low.
Also, each week from here on out, I will post the picks in order from most to least confident. By the time I get to the last couple games, I will openly admit that I would never bet any of them.
As always, home team is in CAPS and lines are courtesy of 5dimes.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- This is the first week where upon first glance, I didn't see an underdog who I was sure would win. I'm still not too confident in this pick, but it should provide a tight divisional game between two mid-level teams, and the Wildcat always gives teams trouble.
Season: 4-1
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (-3) over BUFFALO- Houston is a good 4-3. Buffalo is a bad 3-4. Does that make sense? Let's put it this way: Houston has Matt Schaub, passer rating of 104.4 and fantasy extraordinaire. Buffalo has Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard grad and Wonderlic test extraordinaire.
Season: 4-1
ARIZONA (-10.5) over Carolina- What a difference seven weeks make. Carolina went into the second round of last year's playoffs as 13 point favorites over the Cardinals. Since then, the Cards have went to, and almost won, a Super Bowl and are a solid 4-2. Carolina has had to endured the Jake Delhomme implosion and is 2-4 with very little hope of returning to the playoffs.
NY Giants (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Both teams have had an awful two weeks, but getting dominated by New Orleans and Arizona may actually be more impressive than losing to Oakland and barely beating Washington.
Cleveland (+14) over CHICAGO- Cleveland is awful, very, very awful, but 14 is too big of a spread for a Chicago team that has scored over 20 only twice in six weeks. I'm fine with Indy, New England, New Orleans, etc. getting big spreads against Bottom Nine teams, but not Chicago.
DETROIT (-3.5) over St. Louis- I repeat, why is anyone betting on this game? Can you really predict how two teams who have one win between both of them in the last 34 games are going to play? Out of both teams, at least Detroit does something ok, and that is score points. That should be enough to cover against a team that averages 8.5 points per game.
BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- If this is a pick'em, as it should be, I ride Baltimore hard. After dropping 3 in a row, they are desperate, and coming off a bye, they should be ready. Denver, on the other hand, is already three games ahead of San Diego, and it seems like just the type of game they should lose (although I've said that for the past four weeks). It is picking the winner that scares me, it is the points. This game will be close. Let's hope Baltimore does enough to cover.
DALLAS (-10.5) over Seattle- Seattle is bad, just a tiny step above the Bottom 9 (see Power Rankings). Dallas looks like they've put it together. Ten and a half points is high. But probably not quite high enough. It will be close.
Atlanta (+13) over NEW ORLEANS- An example of the public's short memory. Atlanta is a good team who looked flat last week and got hosed by a Dallas team that needed to win. Now, they are 13 point dogs? Yes, New Orleans is good, can score points on anyone, and will most likely control this game. But win by 13? Not buying it.
INDIANAPOLIS (-14) over San Francisco- In normal years, an undefeated Indy team at home would probably be a 10 point favorite over an a decent, 3-3 San Fran team. But after getting abused week after week by big favorites, Vegas can't set this line high enough. I'll keep taking Indy until they fail to cover.
Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE- A classic “take the points game”. You know the NFL is screwy when a 0-6 team is giving points to a 3-3 squad. I know their fans don't go to games, but shouldn't they be given a little more respect.
SAN DIEGO (-17.5) over Oakland- Just another example of how crazy this season is. A 3-3 team is a 17.5 point favorite over a team with only one less win. And I'm taking them. Why? Because I'm a sucker for San Diego. An when starting Bruce Gradkowski is an upgrade, you have some problems.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota- Green Bay will win. But will they cover? That I'm not sure about. But hey, its the last pick of the week. Let's get this over with.
Season: 41-29-1
Back in the States and it is even harder for me to post on time? These weddings are really taking a toll on my blogging life. I'm posting my picks, which were originally made on a napkin at Doc McGrogan's about 10 minutes before gametime, for posterity's sake. I promise more posts and more punctuality from here on out.
After going 7-7 last week, and 6-8 the week before, I'm relying on road favorites to ride high this week and get me back on track. Has there ever been a week with huge road favorites in the history of the NFL? Green Bay, the Jets, Indy, and New England are all giving atleast 10 points while traveling, with San Diego and New Orleans not far behind, and I'm picking all but Indy to cover. Crazy!
As always, home team in CAPS and lines from 5dimes.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Atlanta (+5.5) over DALLAS
Season: 4-0
"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Buffalo (+7.5) over CAROLINA
Season: 3-1
Arizona (+7.5) over NY GIANTS
New England (-16.5) over TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
CINCINATTI (pick em) over Chicago
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI
New York Jets (-10) over Oakland
Green Bay (-10) over CLEVELAND
San Diego (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
ST. LOUIS (+15) over Indianapolis
Minnesota (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
Last Week: 7-7
Season: 33-26
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Arizona (+2.5) over SEATTLE- In both Seattle's wins this season, they have shut out their opponent. You can bet (and I will) that the same will not happen against Cards, who seem to have regained their offensive mojo against the Texans last week. In a week of very tough picks, this seems too easy.
Season: 3-0
“You Can Put It On The Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI- After three straight down to the wire wins against divisional opponents, the Bengals are in for a huge let-down game. Houston can score with the best of them, and will cover easily, if not win outright.
Season: 2-1
Kansas City (+7) over WASHINGTON- This is not a pick for Kansas City, it is a pick against Washington. After losing to the Giants in Week 1 by six, the Redskins have beaten St. Louis by 2, lost to Detroit by 5, beaten Tampa Bay by 3, and lost to Carolina by 3. What about those performances inspires someone to make them SEVEN POINT FAVORITES? This is the team that lost to the Detroit Lions and has beaten the league's worst two teams by a combined 5 points. No thanks.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Denver- Best stat I've heard this week: Kyle Orton is 18-2 as a starter at home. Watch out Trent Dilfer, he is quickly coming for your mantle as the NFL's best game manager, which entitles him to years and years of mockery. Fortunately for San Diego, the game is not in Denver, and the bubble has to burst eventually. This is the week for it.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina- Maybe I'm picking with my heart, but Josh Johnson has added a dimension to this team that they sorely lacked with Byron Leftwich; namely, a quarterbacks whose feet aren't stuck in concrete. More importantly, only a world-class masochist would take a Jake Delhomme-lead road favorite.
Buffalo (+10.5) over NY JETS- Something about this game screams close. I mean, Buffalo's vaunted D did hold the incomparable Derek Anderson to 17 yards passing last week.
JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) over St. Louis- I'm done falling into the trap of thinking St. Louis will keep it close. And it only took 2 shut outs in 5 weeks for me to realize the error of my ways.
ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago- Hate the Bears, love the Falcons.
Let's quick pick the rest, since I'm having a difficult enough time even picking winners.
Baltimore (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
Detroit (+15) over GREEN BAY
PITTSBURGH (-15) over Cleveland
Philadelphia (-15) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Tennessee
N.Y. Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Season: 26-19
And there you have it. Five weeks into the season, and I have my first under .500 performance. It was bound to happen, but I still can't forgive the J-E-T-S, who squandered my hope of continuing my march towards respectability with a clunker against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, I believed in you, and you couldn't pull out a win against a team who doesn't even play with a quarterback? What is this world coming to?
While 6-8 doesn't hurt too terribly bad, it does bring the season record to 26-19, which sounds rather pedestrian. I will take pride in the fact that this week, both my Lock of the Week and Underdog to Win picks both came through again, and that on the season, I'm still perfect on the Underdogs.
Highlights:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Atlanta's offense coming alive? Check. San Fran's offense having trouble coming from behind? Check. Another underdog win? Check.
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?
1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.
But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Where to start with this game? How about we start, and end, with this statement: Tennessee is really, really bad, and this week, I promise I won't attempt to talk myself into taking them again.
DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.
Well, that is about exactly what happened. Big pat on the back.
ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.
Big fantasy games for Fitz and Andre Johnson, very respectable ones for Warner and Schaub, but an even bigger win for the Cardinals. Eventhough they are a half game behind, look like the front-runners in the NFC West, for what that's worth.
Lowlights (and there were a lot of them):
NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.
I guess if by swallowed up, I mean kept under 32 points, well then yes, they sure did get gobbled up.
New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.
Someone out there, who is much smarter than me, took the Broncos moneyline on this game. I would like to shake that man (or woman's) hand, because I didn't see this coming in a million years.
Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.
When you make a statement with three distinct parts to it and each one is completely and utterly wrong, what do you do? Move on!
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.
Not only did Cleveland stay close, but they won! With a quarterback who completed two passes all game! Maybe the good people in the NFL's two most blue-collar towns appreciate this kind of football, but I sure don't. Thank you for keeping it off my tv. Wow.
Will the betting gods spew down their wrath upon me for missing a week of picks, even if it was to satisfy betting's twin vice, drinking? After two straight weeks above .500, I'm expecting the worst. Without further ado:
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Season: 2-0
"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?
1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.
But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Season: 1-1
Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.
New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.
DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY- What's the most positive thing that can be taken away from the Chiefs first four games? The almost beat the JaMarcus Russell-lead Raiders? They only lost the Giants by 11? Larry Johnson's body hasn't self-destructed yet? (wait, isn't that a negative). There are a lot of bad teams in this league, and the Chiefs are fighting hard for that number one spot.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-16) over Oakland- Out of all the bad decisions Al Davis has made over the past few years, getting rid of Jeff Garcia has got to be the worst. Now, instead of having the option of benching JaMarcus and his 44.5 passer rating and putting in a quarterback who has multiple Pro Bowl appearances, he gets to decide between Bruce Gradkowski (bad), Charlie Frye (badder) or sticking with JaMarcus (baddest). And this whole time you thought it was DHB's fault he wasn't catching balls?
ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.
NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.
Washington (+4) over CAROLINA- What do you do when two teams you hate and wouldn't ever trust to cover a spread play against each other? Take the points!
ST. LOUIS (+11) over Minnesota- One of these weeks, St. Louis will keep it competitive against a team not named the Redskins. Why will it be this week? No clue, other than the fact that I am a huge Steven Jackson apologist and I think he relishes the chance to go against another one of the league's best backs.
Tampa Bay (+16) over PHILADELPHIA- Tampa Bay has now lost games by 13, 13, 24, and 3. That means I have a ¾ chance of them covering, right?
BALTIMORE (-10) over Cincinatti- It was so hard to decide this game that I decided to sleep on it. And even that didn't help. So, I'll just give in and go with my first instinct. Let's go Ravens!
Season: 20-11
While I didn't match the sterling 12-4 record of last week, I did managed to break .500 once again. It may only be 8-7, but I'm riding high once again after nailing the Detroit win. One more week like this, and you can replace the world gambling with investing. May the Pabst continue to flow!
Highlights:
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh doesn't be
at anyone by more than three points. In fact, they don't even beat teams like Chicago anymore.
Or Cincinnati. Be very worried, Steel-town. You are oh so close to being 0-3. And it feels soooo good!
NY Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY- The NFL: Home to the transitive property. Tampa Bay lost to Dallas by 13. Dallas lost to New York Giants by 2. Tampa Bay loses to New York by 15 (or at least more than 7).
Did I write 15? Fingers must have slipped. I meant 24.
DETROIT (+7) over Washington- Washington hits rock bottom when it loses outright to the resident rock bottom dwellers Detroit Lions! There, I said it. It's on paper. And the delete key won't work, so let's move on.
Just like its namesake, the Tom Nelson Pick of the Week is not for the faint of heart. Go big of go home, and for the second straight week, I've nailed it. Nothing better than seeing the second-longest losing streak in NFL history snapped at the hands of the most boring, bland, utterly uninspiring football team in the league. Go Hogs!
NY JETS (-1.5) over Tennessee- Feels like a perfect trap game, with Tennessee absolutely needing a win and the Jets riding high after defeating the Pats. But...I can't get the image of the Titans defense absolutely self-destructin
g against Houston. Jets really start putting pressure on the rest of the AFC East by moving to 3-0.
How many former USC quarterbacks will become legitimate NFL starters before “The Chosen One” gets onto the field? Only two more years of beer bongs in the summer and clipboard- holding in the fall until Matt Barkley makes it three.
Lowlights:
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Both Houston and Jacksonville are more than willing to give up 30 points to their opponents. Houston is capable of scoring 30 points. Jacksonville is not. That makes this pick easy.
Jacksonville 31, Houston 24. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Just plain wrong.
Cleveland (-14) over BALTIMORE- When #2 and #32 in your power rankings meet, the spread should be this big. But, for some odd reason, this....just...seems...too....high.
Tease the line 17 more points and my prediction would have been dead on!
OAKLAND 
(+1) over Denver- Ask yourself this: Is Denver good enough to be 3-0? If you're not laughing out loud, then you don't know football.
Now entered into the betting lexicon, the JakeMarcus Russhomme Collary: When deciding between a bad team and a really bad quarterback, pick the bad team. Always.
ARIZONA (-1.5) over Indianapolis - Both quarterbacks have two legitimate MVP's (Peyton's 2009 award ranks up there with Karl Malone in MVP travesties) and one Super Bowl ring. One quarterback has Anquan Boldin as his second wideout. The other has Pierre Garcon.
Guess its time to scrap that Peyton Manning-Kurt Warner comparison article I've been working on.
After a scorching 12-4 start to the season, the fear that comes with high expectations is weighing heavy on my confidence. While everything seemed so clear last week, this certainly felt like a struggle. Is it something in the Rome air? Is it the pizza and gelato coma I've been in for three days? Regardless, like the gladiators who performed only a few kilometers away, I soldier on, determined to slay Vegas.
As always, home team in caps and spreads courtesy of 5dimes.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright: 
DETROIT (+7) over Washington- Washington hits rock bottom when it loses outright to the resident rock bottom dwellers Detroit Lions! There, I said it. It's on paper. And the delete key won't work, so let's move on.
Season: 1-0
“You Can Put It On the Board!” Lock of the Week:
NY Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY- The NFL: Home to the transitive property. Tampa Bay lost to Dallas by 13. Dallas lost to New York Giants by 2. Tampa Bay loses to New York by 15 (or at least more than 7).
Season: 0-1
PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) over Kansas City- Come see a former Houston Cougar battle a quarterback who never took a college snap! Welcome to the UFL, err, NFL.
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Both Houston and Jacksonville are more than willing to give up 30 points to their opponents. Houston is capable of scoring 30 points. Jacksonville is not. That makes this pick easy.
Cleveland (-14) over BALTIMORE- When #2 and #32 in your power rankings meet, the spread should be this big. But, for some odd reason, this....just...seems...too....high.
Atlanta (+4.5) over New England- Matt Ryan is turning into pre-2007 Tom Brady. He may not put up the biggest numbers, but he makes plays when he needs to, doesn't turn the ball over, and most importantly, he wins. Atlanta keeps it close, and may even pull off the upset.
Green Bay (-7) over ST. LOUIS- The Rams lost to a team that I've now predicted to lose to the Detroit Lions. Greatest Show on Turf, where art thou?
NY JETS (-1.5) over Tennessee- Feels like a perfect trap game, with Tennessee absolutely needing a win and the Jets riding high after defeating the Pats. But...I can't get the image of the Titans defense absolutely self-destructing against Houston. Jets really start putting pressure on the rest of the AFC East by moving to 3-0.
New Orleans (-5.5) over BUFFALO- One thing I wouldn't do when I play New Orleans: Run a hurry up offense. Giving the ball back to Drew Brees and company as quickly as possible seems like a very, very bad idea. Which Bills defensive lineman choke slams Dick Jauron first?
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh doesn't beat anyone by more than three points. In fact, they don't even beat teams like Chicago anymore.
OAKLAND (+1) over Denver- Ask yourself this: Is Denver good enough to be 3-0? If you're not laughing out loud, then you don't know football.
ARIZONA (-1.5) over Indianapolis - Both quarterbacks have two legitimate MVP's (Peyton's 2009 award ranks up there with Karl Malone in MVP travesties) and one Su
per Bowl ring. One quarterback has Anquan Boldin as his second wideout. The other has Pierre Garcon.
Carolina (+9) over DALLAS- Jerry Jones would do anything to avoid going 0-2 in his new billion dollar digs. Like hanging the scoreboard too low. Wait, that wasn't a way to cheat, it was just a huge oversight? My bad. Meanwhile, Tony Romo is working hard to supplant Jake Delhomme as the NFL's most efficient turnover machine.
San Francisco (+7.5) over MINNESOTA- What odds would Vegas have given you during the preseason that this game would feature two undefeated teams? 20-1? 50-1? 100-1? One team emerges unscathed, and I have sneaky suspicion that it could be the Niners. I'm not quite ballsy enough to make the moneyline bet, but I would take the points.
SEATTLE (+1) over Chicago- This week's worst matchup features two teams who don't do anything well. If the game ends 0-0, then Seattle covers!
Last week: 12-4
Season: 12-4
“Because life without accountability is far too enjoyable”
Not even a fantasy thrashing at the hands of Chris Johnson could quell the joy that radiated through the room last night as I struck gold with my first 2009 betting guide. Not only were the games yesterday awesome from a football perspective and a fantasy perspective (for owners of Matt Schaub, Frank Gore, and the aforementioned Chris Johnson), but also from a bankroll perspective. An 11-4 Sunday means Pabst for everyone!
Highlights:
St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.
There is no quarterback that consistently delivers mediocrity like Jason Campbell. Three field goals later, the Redskins are making me look like Nostradamus.
Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.
Bingo Bango! Tom Nelson Underdog's now 1-0 thanks to Tennessee's Kris Kringle-esque generosity.
Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.
Had it not been such a gimme, I would have made the Cards my Tom Nelson pick of the week. Kurt Warner's near flawless performance made a mockery of a line that never should have been set that high to begin with.
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)
No drama with the scoreboard (boo!), no injuries to either team (boo!) but an almost perfect call with the prediction (yeah!)
Lowlights:
New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or one less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.
That same Mr. Brady was unable to lead his team to a single touchdown for the first time since 2006. And Mr. Sanchez (he has earned it now) became only the second rookie quarterback since Big Ben (not bad company) to beat a Belicheck-lead Patriots squad.
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl participants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.
While I'll readily admit that I didn't see this coming (Pittsburgh was my Lock of the Week), this is a fluke, not a trend. Ironically enough, the Bears won because Cutler played like Kyle Orton, not like Jay Cutler. If you're a Steelers fan though, you have be worried about the offense, which has only managed 27 points through 2 games. And after watching Houston hang 34 on Tennessee's D, the excuse that they've played against two of the leagues' best defenses is rendered moot. If you're a Chicago fan, enjoy this victory, because it will be one of six you'll have all year.
We're through one week of the season, and for the first time in years I don't find myself on the wrong side of .500. VICTORY! Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, far more pressing matters (like driving 20 dozen baseballs 9 hours to Germany) hampered me from making any predictions whatsoever. Not that I'm complaining. It allowed me to salvage my pride, and bank account, for one more week.
Before getting to NFL picks, a quick scouring of World Series futures reveals an interesting value play. San Francisco, which now sits only 2.5 games out of the NL Wild Card and boasts the best rotation in all of baseball (Lincecum, Cain, a rejuvenated Barry Zito, and Mr. No-No Johnathan Sanchez) are a steal at 50/1. If they can sneak by the "dropping like a Rock-ies", their staff gives them as good a chance as any in the wide-open NL. But snap them up quick, because that line will be changing quickly, especially as they inch closer to the wild card lead.
Onto the NFL:
The Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright: Houston Texans
"You Can Put It On the Board!" Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO
As always, the spreads are courtesy of 5dimes and the home teams are in CAPS.
ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina- The more intriguing bet involving this game is the over/under for Jake Delhomme turnovers. Take the over on anything in single digits.
St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.
Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.
New Orleans (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Combined, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, and Jeff Garcia have 12 Pro Bowl appearances. Unfortunately, all three will also be starting the game on the bench for the Birds. Drew Brees vs. Kevin Kolb in a pick'em? That's a no-brainer.
New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or o
ne less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.
Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY- The classic “who looked better in defeat” question? I'm going with the Raiders, whose running game was very productive against San Diego last week. Baby steps, Oakland, baby steps.
Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.
GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati- After just finishing the season finale of Hard Knocks, its awfully tough to pick against the Bengals. But then I remember its the Bengals. Silver lining: everyone's a winner if Ochocinco does the Lambeau Leap.
Minnesota (-10.5) over DETROIT- It's entirely possible (probable?) that Adrian Peterson could have over 400 yards rushing after Week 2. The assault on 2,105 (sans goggles) gains real legitimacy courtesy of the Detroit Lions.
BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay- Tampa Bay with Adrian Peterson (who they passed on in the 2007 draft): fun to watch, explosive on offense, Super Bowl contenders. Tampa Bay with Gaines Adams (who they drafted #5 in 2007): Not so much.
SAN FRANCISCO (pick'em) over Seattle- It's Christmas in September with two pick'ems in one week. Lest I remind you again, Shaun Hill is now 9-3 as a starter.
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl paricipants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.
DENVER (-3) over Cleveland- After Week 12 last season, many in the football world were pegging the Broncos as darkhorse Super Bowl contenders. 4 straight losses, the trade of your franchise quarterback, a hissy fit by your star wideout, and a lucky Week 1 victory over the Bungles later and they are neutral field equals with the lowly Cleveland Browns. They're bad, but not that bad.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Baltimore- Can San Diego contain the juggernaut that is Joe Flacco? Uhh, yes.
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)
Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI- I've hammered the road team all week, why stop now?