Everyman's Fantasy

Your Week 12 picks are here, and in plenty of time for the Thanksgiving Day games. Last week's 9-6 week felt good, but was dampened a little by Arizona's failure to cover and Atlanta's valiant but unsuccessful upset bid against the Giants. You'll note that there are three games not picked below: Cincy-Cleveland, Carolina-New York Jets, and the granddaddy of them all, New England-New Orleans. I've decided to sleep on those three games and post them tomorrow.

Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
Last week, I didn't feel any underdogs could pull the upset. This week, in the spirit of the holiday of Thanks, I'm giving you two.

Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO- Not sure why San Fran is favored in this game. Jax is on a three game winning streak and is currently sitting #5 in the AFC. Sure, I have a vested interest in them now that I've futured them at 150/1, but I don't think that clouds my vision too much. Why wouldn't Jacksonville win this game? San Fran isn't that good.

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle- The Rams best offensive weapon? Steven Jackson. Seattle's? Justin Forsett, a man who started out the season behind TJ Duckett and Julius Jones on the depth chart. Moneyline this baby!
Last Week: 0-1
Season: 7-2

“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO- Just like Jacksonville, I feel like Miami is quietly sneaking up on people. They aren't good enough to make the playoffs, especially with Ronnie Brown out, but they are overshadowed in the AFC East by the Pats. While everyone else lumps the rest of the teams in division together as just mediocre, I think that Miami is a step above Buffalo, and this game should prove it.
Last Week: 1-0
Season: 7-2

MINNESOTA (-12.5) over Chicago- I said last week that all they did was cover big spreads, and lo and behold, they hammered Seattle. Why get off that gravy train now?

Arizona (+2.5) over Tennessee- As a pick'em, I was slightly hesitant to take my boys. I take the fact that the line has slid to +2.5 in the last four hours as a sign from above. Combine that premonition with Kurt Warner's return and it's like God himself has ordained this game.

SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City- Great win for the Chiefs last week, who have been playing inspired ball lately, but the Chargers are just too hot right now.

Washington (+10) over PHILADELPHIA- Taking Washington makes me want to vomit. Taking Philadelphia to cover a 10 point spread makes it actually happen.

New York Giants (-7) over DENVER- There are about 600 quarterbacks I'd rather have pull my team out of full tail-spin mode than Chris Simms. And Kyle Orton isn't one of them.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) over BALTIMORE- For the first time all year, I've had to go outside of 5dimes to get a line. Only BETUS had it offered, and they had the line at 2.5. Pittsburgh is desperate, but if Big Ben can't go, it falls on Dennis Dixon. Who knows where to go with this? I'll put faith in the “Pittsburgh way”, regardless of quarterback.

I now welcome you to the “This Line is Too High” portion of your programming:

DETROIT (+12.5) over Green Bay- 12.5 points on the road after a short week? It's the Lions, but come on.

Oakland (+14.5) over DALLAS- Bruce Gradkowski keeps this game under 14.5 on spunk alone. He's like Jeff Garcia without the Pro Bowl appearances and Playmate wife.

Tampa Bay (+13.5) over ATLANTA- A team who just lost their last two games shouldn't be favored by this much.

Last Week: 9-6
Season: 69-56-2