When does a 7-7-1 week feel way worse than it is? When your Lock of the Year and your other sure thing go down in flames and the only way you avoided total disaster was a last second money-line of the Cincinnati Bengals, that's when. So excuse me if I'm a little gun shy, but Denver losing to Washington (forget about even covering) and Atlanta dropping one to Carolina really have me reeling, seven days later. Silver lining? My Underdog Pick once again comes through. Who would have thought making the Raiders a favorite wasn't a good idea...
P.S.- These spreads are killer. I feel like the bookies are just goading me to take the underdogs, making spreads just a little too high in hopes that they will get me to enter into a sucker bet. And in some cases, they have succeeded. Remember, this is a season in which spreads couldn't go high enough for the first seven weeks, with big favorites covering anything Vegas could throw at them. But we've seen that trend slow down in the last couple weeks, and a season that started as a gimme for bettors has become increasingly difficult. In half the games, I could easily go the other way and feel comfortable. That is never a good sign.
Tom Nelson Underdog Pick to Win Outright
For the first time all season, I truly don't have a game in which I believe the underdog will win outright. Swing that Indy line to Baltimore a point, and I'm money, but with it sitting at pick'em, I'll have to look somewhere else. Only because I have to:
Atlanta (+8) over NEW YORK GIANTS- Coming off a bye, needing a victory to stay afloat, and playing a team that just lost its star running back, this sure seems like an easy pick. But I remain bullish on the Falcons, and I'm not even sure why. Pretty sure this is a matter of picking with my heart and not with my head, so before I change my mind, lets move on.
Season: 7-1
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
Indianapolis (pick'em) over BALTIMORE- Some people may be incredulous over this line, may even make claims like “Vegas is giving me money”, but after last week, I've learned my lesson (at least for a week). But I also understand this line. Indy is coming off a huge emotional victory in their biggest game of the regular season and has pretty much wrapped up home-field advantage through at least the second round. They are undefeated, have answered all their critics. Their motivation to win this game is low. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fighting tooth and nail for a wild card berth, is trying to re-establish itself after starting hot and then tanking, and need a signature win to regain some team confidence. Their motivation is HIGH. So, I understand this line. But understanding and agreeing with it are two completely different things. A good rule to follow: Never bet against an undefeated Peyton Manning team who does not need to cover points, regardless of the situation.
Season: 6-2
DETROIT (-3) over Cleveland- Last time Detroit was favored, I took them too. A team that is 1-26 in their last 27 games. Why? I'm not sure. Should I have learned my lesson? Probably. But it's Cleveland. Historically offensively inept Cleveland. A team that has scored nine points in their last three games and whose lone win came when they scored six. First one to get a defensive touchdown takes this one down!
JACKSONVILLE (-10) over Buffalo- I never think Buffalo is as bad as they are, and then I check their schedule each week. Drubbings by Tennessee and Houston their last two games (teams Jacksonville is somewhat comparable to), a loss to Cleveland (the aforementioned six point victory), drubbings by Miami and New Orleans. The only thing keeping them out of really bad status is a decent victory over the Jets in overtime and a Week 1 “should have won” against New England. Jacksonville meanwhile is clicking behind the hyphen brothers, Jones-Drew and Sims-Walker.
San Francisco (+7) over GREEN BAY- So I tell you last week that my boyish crush on Green Bay was finally over, I had cut the cord, that the Packers were dead to me. And what do they do? Go out and get their most impressive victory of the season over a streaking Dallas team. Seems about right.
MINNESOTA (-11.5) over Seattle- For some reason, I feel that the Vikings are a hard team to read. But why? Each time they have a big spread, they cover (Detroit week 10, Green Bay week 8, St. Louis week 5). However, my recognizing this phenomena probably spells doom for Minnesota and all who bet on them.
Arizona (-10) over ST. LOUIS- I've argued to many that St. Louis has been a different team the last couple weeks, and their results back up this claim (a near loss to the Saints, a win over Detroit). But even while I argue that, I still can't make myself fully believe it. I may regret this pick, but I'm going to have to ride my Cardinals for yet another week.
NEW ENGLAND (-11.5) over NY Jets- Interestingly enough, if New England wins last week against Indy, I take the Jets in a heartbeat this is an AFC East rivalry game, and a 10 point spread is almost always too high. But after throwing the game away last Sunday, and all the subsequent criticism, Bill Belicheck and the boys will be out for blood. New England attempt to run up the score in this one could make Steve Spurrier blush.
Cincinnati (-10) over OAKLAND- Cincy as a ten point road favorite has to be one of my favorite lines of all time. Good for Marv Lewis, Carson Palmer, and the rest of the Bungles. While I'm a little wary that the Bungles went from undervalued to overvalued to quickly (which they did), they saved me last week big time and continue to reward my trust in them. Of course, the bet is a lot easier to make when they are playing a squad whose number one pick three years ago can't beat out Bruce Gradkowski.
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO- I hate betting on the hometown team, but I hate the Bears even more. Chicago has absolutely no identity on offense, mostly due to the fact that Jay Cutler loves giving the ball to the other team on every other drive. Expect Sean McDermott to blitz like crazy, leading to even more confusion (and picks) for the “savior of Chicago”.
HOUSTON (-4) over Tennessee- Chris Johnson is very, very scary, and Vince Young has been playing decent football so far. But Houston has quietly been playing very good in the last six weeks, with convincing wins over Buffalo, San Francisco, and Cincinnati and two losses coming in close games to Indy and Arizona. I'll take a consistent (feels weird using that term with the Texans) team over a trendy team any day.
San Diego (-7) over DENVER- Wow, the tables have turned since these two teams last met in Week 6. After winning that contest, Denver sat at 6-0 and had already built a 3.5 game lead over the Chargers. Since then, Denver has gone on to get pummeled in three straight games while San Diego has picked up four straight wins and drawn even with Denver in the standings. After blasting them all season, last week I finally went big with Denver and they killed me. While it is weird to see the road team in this contest between two tied teams get seven points, this is one time where I feel that it is justified. Denver can do nothing right, and San Diego can do no wrong. Hopefully, that trend continues.
Washington (+12) over DALLAS- I guess Washington deserves some credit for their victory over Denver (every time I write it, it stings), although I still adhere to the theory that any time a team loses to Washington, they are beating themselves. Still, 12 points is a bit high for an NFC East contest in late November....I think.
Kansas City (+12) over PITTSBURGH- This is a bet that goes the other way if I never look at Kansas City's schedule for the last six weeks. Outside of a thrashing by San Diego, they have been semi-competitive; losing to Dallas in overtime, beating Washington, losing to Jacksonville by 3, and beating Oakland. I'm not sure why I feel this means they can hang with Pittsburgh, but at this point, I was looking for anything to hang my hat on.
Tampa Bay (+11.5) over NEW ORLEANS- Sometimes, you just have to say screw it and go with your boys.
Last week: 7-7-1
Overall: 60-50-2
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
0 comments:
Post a Comment