Everyman's Fantasy

While last week may not seem like such a great week, only going 7-6 against the spread, my more confident picks continue to hit. With both the Underdog and Lock of the Week picks winning again, I move to 6-1 with both of them on the year, a pretty impressive feat so far. And with Big Daddy Frank agreeing to bankroll me for the remainder of the season, big money could be at stake if that type of performance continues.

Looking ahead to this week, I'm not really confident in the Underdog pick, although it has to be made each week. I'm much, much more sold on Denver as the Lock of the Week and Atlanta-Carolina, which you're getting as a pick 'em at 5dimes. I'd hit those two games hard, and then ease off some but still feel confident with Cincy, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.

“This week's gonna be a good week, this week's gonna be a good, goooood weeeeek”!

Tom Nelson Underdog To Win Outright:
Kansas City (+1) over OAKLAND- It's the RAAAIIIIIIDDDDDERS...and they are favored. Ladies and gentlemen, you're NFC West. (Call this a cop out if you want (meow), it being a one point spread and all, but technically it fits the criteria. And look at the other games this week. The only other one I even considered was Cincinnati-Pittsburgh. If I had big balls, I'd take the Bungles, but as Heather can attest, I am not genetically gifted (meow).
Season: 6-1

Lock of the Week:
Denver (-3) over WASHINGTON- So you're a Vegas handicapper and you are losing money hand over fist this season in the NFL. What do you do? Go and gift wrap yet another Lock of the Week for the Everyman. Seriously. I can't even believe this line. Look at the lines for every other atrocious team in the league this week; Detroit +17, St. Louis +14.5, Tampa Bay +11, Cleveland +12. And yet here sits Washington, at +3. Please don't pull the home-field advantage card, either. Jason Campbell could give two shits about whether he is throwing picks at Fedex Field or any of the other 31 stadiums in the league. I'm not a huge fan of Denver or Kyle Orton, as I repeat each week, but let's be real. They are at worst a mid-level team who don't beat themselves. And as we've seen this year, Washington isn't beating anyone on their own. This is an ultimate LOCK.
Season: 6-1

Atlanta (pick 'em) over CAROLINA- So suddenly everyone is ready to anoint the Panthers as a “sneaky” pick? I don't get it. Their five week resurgence has consisted of a win over one good team (Cardinals), two wins by a combined 10 points over two of the worst teams in football (Redskins, Bucs), a loss to an average (at best) team (Bills) and a not as close as it looked 10 point loss to the Saints. Where exactly is this confidence coming from? Hey, I don't care, because I'm getting another easy call with the Falcons, who continue to get little respect from Vegas.

Cincinnati (+8) over PITTSBURGH- A perfect example of a typically overvalued commodity getting too much credit against a continually undervalued team. I told you last week that I thought Baltimore was better but that I saw great value in the Bengals being home underdogs. Well guess what, I was wrong. Baltimore wasn't better, and Cincinnati didn't just win, they won convincingly. And still, the Bengals remain the Bungles in everyone's eyes. Not me. I'll ride them until they let me down.

Jacksonville (+8) over NEW YORK JETS- Call me a roadie, a road whore, whatever, but this is yet another game where the home team is getting way too much respect. I ask again, what has New York done lately to deserve this spread? Is going 1-4 in your last 5 games, with your lone win over the hapless Raiders, an accomplishment all of a sudden? Sure, New York might win this game, move to 5-4, and continue to hoodwink their fans into thinking they have a shot at the playoffs, but it won't be by 8 points. Man, sometimes it seems too easy.

New Orleans (-14.5) over ST. LOUIS- This is scary line, no doubt. A road favorite getting 14.5 points seems like a tough pill to swallow. But then realize that you have the best team in football playing the worst team in football. And then realize that New Orleans is averaging 38 points a game while St. Louis is averaging 10. I didn't major in math, but my abacus is telling me that is a difference of 28 points per game. Let's get even deeper. New Orleans average margin of victory: 16 points. St. Louis's average margin of defeat: 18. Right, so now that line doesn't seem high enough, does it?

SAN DIEGO (pick 'em) over Philadelphia- And in our matchup of the league's two most confusing teams, we finally find ourselves with a home winner. What is that keeps me from believing in Philly? Is it still their loss to Oakland? Or lackluster performance against Washington the next week? Or maybe it is their absolute abysmal showing against the Cowboys in a game to determine first place. Whatever it is, the Eagles are not a pretty squad to watch, and certainly not an enjoyable one to root for. Sure, the Chargers have no running game and the Birds will probably blitz every down, but I don't think it matters. At this point, the Phillip Rivers-Vincent Jackson combo makes me feel much more comfortable than anything the Eagles are trotting out there.

ARIZONA (-9.5) over Seattle- I wish this line was a little lower, it being a divisional game and all (although, in the NFC West, does that even mean anything?). Still, the Cardinals have the firepower to score points in bunches, as evidenced by their absolute blitzing of Chicago last week, while Seattle has the ability to...come from behind against Detroit?

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over New England- There is only one reason why I take Indy in this game and that is Peyton Manning. Sure, they may be banged up, but Peyton has done it all year with a motley cast of characters (Pierre Garcon? Austin Collie?). He is simply playing at a different level than anyone else right now, Tom Brady included.

Dallas (-2.5) over GREEN BAY- The Green Bay that I predicted to go 13-3, that rolled through the preseason, that was a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the NFC? That Green Bay is gone, out, sayanora, peace. It took a loss to the previously defeated Bucs to finally get me to realize that, but better late than never. My strange infatuation with this team got so bad that even this week I kept trying to rationalize a Green Bay 60/1 Super Bowl future. This is only days after they LOST. TO. THE. BUCS! Like finally getting over an ex-girlfriend, my and the Pack are over. Thankfully. No more thoughts of late night text messages in hopes of winning them back.

Baltimore (-12.5) over CLEVELAND- Cleveland has covered a 12.5 point spread only twice this year, once when they beat the Bills and once when they lost to the Bengals in overtime. Meanwhile, the demise of the Ravens may be premature. Their four losses have come against the Pats (6-2), the Vikings (7-1) and twice to the Bengals (6-2). This is still a good football team who happens to not be able to win games against the elite teams in the NFL, a category the Browns do not find themselves in.

Buffalo (+8) over TENNESSEE- I've flip-flopped three times on this game. A chronological breakdown:

Original thought: Great, so the Titans look good the last two weeks behind Vince Young. But can you really have faith in a player that needed a 59-0 drubbing and six consecutive losses by a 36 year old Kerry Collins in order to take over the starting spot (and scored a 6 on his Wonderlic?). I'll pass.

2nd thought: What? Buffalo has the league's worst rushing defense? They are giving up a whopping a 173 yards a game? Why would Jeff Fisher even have Vince Young play quarterback? Couldn't Chris Johnson just line up behind center and run each and every play? I know this bet hinges on Jeff Fisher being an intelligent human being, an iffy proposition, but having the best back in the league right now (I acquiesce Baldo) against this porous D is enough to sway me.

3rd thought: On further review of the stats, I've now noticed that Tennessee is giving up an AVERAGE of 30 points per game, more than anyone else in the league (yes, even the Lions!). Yes, Buffalo's offense is mediocre at best, but Tennessee has given up 27 to the Niners and 37 to the Jags, both teams not known for their explosiveness. When your D is last in the league in scoring defense, and you are expected to cover 8 points, that is never a good combination.

And when you are flip-flopping three times on a game between a 2-6 and 3-5 team, you should probably never bet that.

MIAMI (-11) over Tampa Bay- In the creamsicles, Tampa Bay covers easily, hey, maybe even wins outright. But a return to the pewter boys means a return to embarrassment. Thank you God for giving the world a clear sign that the Bucs need to return to the league's sweetest throwbacks full-time. Now it's up to Malcolm Glazer to listen.

MINNESOTA (-17) over Detroit- If I could abstain, I would. Who knows whether a pathetic Lions team will show up enough to cover 17 points or whether Minnesota will let off the gas enough to let them slip into a cover? Things I am sure about? Adrian Peterson running for over 150 yards and Matthew Stafford getting sacked at least 5 times. Enjoy, Lions fans!

Last Week: 7-6
Season: 53-43-1