Everyman's Fantasy

When do you know that you are witnessing an unprecedented NFL season? When six of the 13 games played have lines over 10 points? When every line for an entire week is either a three and a half point line or below (signifying a great game) or above a 10 point line (signifying a blowout)? When the Detroit Lions, who are 1-22 in their last 23 games, open as a 9.5 point FAVORITE over St. Louis, who have lost 17 straight, and the line swings six points towards the Rams? Yep, that's when. I ask you, who in their right mind is betting on a game between two teams who have both had 17 game losing streaks in the last year?

It keeps getting wilder and wilder each week, and I think this may be the week that the linesmakers finally catch up to us. After a cursory glance over the lines, none of the games jump out as “duh” picks, and confidence is low.

Also, each week from here on out, I will post the picks in order from most to least confident. By the time I get to the last couple games, I will openly admit that I would never bet any of them.

As always, home team is in CAPS and lines are courtesy of 5dimes.


Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- This is the first week where upon first glance, I didn't see an underdog who I was sure would win. I'm still not too confident in this pick, but it should provide a tight divisional game between two mid-level teams, and the Wildcat always gives teams trouble.
Season: 4-1

“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (-3) over BUFFALO- Houston is a good 4-3. Buffalo is a bad 3-4. Does that make sense? Let's put it this way: Houston has Matt Schaub, passer rating of 104.4 and fantasy extraordinaire. Buffalo has Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard grad and Wonderlic test extraordinaire.
Season: 4-1

ARIZONA (-10.5) over Carolina- What a difference seven weeks make. Carolina went into the second round of last year's playoffs as 13 point favorites over the Cardinals. Since then, the Cards have went to, and almost won, a Super Bowl and are a solid 4-2. Carolina has had to endured the Jake Delhomme implosion and is 2-4 with very little hope of returning to the playoffs.

NY Giants (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Both teams have had an awful two weeks, but getting dominated by New Orleans and Arizona may actually be more impressive than losing to Oakland and barely beating Washington.

Cleveland (+14) over CHICAGO- Cleveland is awful, very, very awful, but 14 is too big of a spread for a Chicago team that has scored over 20 only twice in six weeks. I'm fine with Indy, New England, New Orleans, etc. getting big spreads against Bottom Nine teams, but not Chicago.

DETROIT (-3.5) over St. Louis- I repeat, why is anyone betting on this game? Can you really predict how two teams who have one win between both of them in the last 34 games are going to play? Out of both teams, at least Detroit does something ok, and that is score points. That should be enough to cover against a team that averages 8.5 points per game.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- If this is a pick'em, as it should be, I ride Baltimore hard. After dropping 3 in a row, they are desperate, and coming off a bye, they should be ready. Denver, on the other hand, is already three games ahead of San Diego, and it seems like just the type of game they should lose (although I've said that for the past four weeks). It is picking the winner that scares me, it is the points. This game will be close. Let's hope Baltimore does enough to cover.

DALLAS (-10.5) over Seattle- Seattle is bad, just a tiny step above the Bottom 9 (see Power Rankings). Dallas looks like they've put it together. Ten and a half points is high. But probably not quite high enough. It will be close.

Atlanta (+13) over NEW ORLEANS- An example of the public's short memory. Atlanta is a good team who looked flat last week and got hosed by a Dallas team that needed to win. Now, they are 13 point dogs? Yes, New Orleans is good, can score points on anyone, and will most likely control this game. But win by 13? Not buying it.

INDIANAPOLIS (-14) over San Francisco- In normal years, an undefeated Indy team at home would probably be a 10 point favorite over an a decent, 3-3 San Fran team. But after getting abused week after week by big favorites, Vegas can't set this line high enough. I'll keep taking Indy until they fail to cover.

Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE- A classic “take the points game”. You know the NFL is screwy when a 0-6 team is giving points to a 3-3 squad. I know their fans don't go to games, but shouldn't they be given a little more respect.

SAN DIEGO (-17.5) over Oakland- Just another example of how crazy this season is. A 3-3 team is a 17.5 point favorite over a team with only one less win. And I'm taking them. Why? Because I'm a sucker for San Diego. An when starting Bruce Gradkowski is an upgrade, you have some problems.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota- Green Bay will win. But will they cover? That I'm not sure about. But hey, its the last pick of the week. Let's get this over with.

Season: 41-29-1