Everyman's Fantasy

I had a hunch that last week would be tough and that theory proved right, as I went below .500 for the second time this season after a brutal slate of 4 o'clock games. The Underdog and Lock picks continue to hit though.


Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO- My favorite team in football is getting points against my least favorite team? Seems like the perfect choice for my underdog pick of the week.
Season: 5-1

“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
ATLANTA (-10) over Washington- The line has not moved since it opened at 10. How is that possible? Who is betting on the Redskins? Have they not watched a single quarter of football this year? Atlanta is a good team that was able to hang with the class of the league, New Orleans, last week. This line is not high enough, and I'm taking advantage of it.
Season: 5-1

Green Bay (-10.5) over TAMPA BAY- Speaking of lines that aren't high enough. Green Bay might not be as good as I thought they were pre-season, but Tampa is worse. Way worse. Outside of a seven point loss to Carolina and a three point loss to Washington, they have not kept a game within 13 points. Don't let the bye fool you. This team is not even competitive. You can't take the points.


NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami- Miami played about as well as they could for three quarters against the Saints and still lost by 12. New England is the only team in the league that can score like the Saints, and I expect them to do so in this matchup. Joey Porter can talk all he wants, but his offense can't back it up.

Detroit (+11.5) over SEATTLE- Seattle could lodge another home shut-out (their two wins, against St. Louis and Jacksonville, have both been shut-outs at Qwest) and still not cover. 11.5 points is enough for me to take the Lions, even after that absymal performance against St. Louis.

Kansas City (+7.5) over Jacksonville- Just like Seattle vs Detroit, this is another game with absolutely no interest to me. These bottom teams (Detroit, KC) are bad, but Jacksonville and Seattle aren't much better. I'm taking the points in each contest.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over DENVER- Denver, Denver, Denver, never getting any respect. 6-1, at home (where they are 3-0) and they are still 2.5 point dogs to Pittsburgh, who have lost on the road to both Cincinnati and Chicago already. And for some reason, I still can't get myself to pick them. I say it ever week, but I have a very hard time betting on a Kyle Orton-led team, a stubborness that would prove financially costly.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas- I hate, hate, hate picking Eagles games. A team this up and down is impossible to predict, especially by someone who has to listen to Eagles' analysis every day on talk radio. Does everyone outside of Philly feel as lost trying to gauge this team?

NEW ORLEANS (-14.5) over Carolina- It seems like a high spread, especially when you realize that New Orleans hasn't exactly rolled over their last two opponents (Miami and Atlanta), and Carolina is quietly won 3 of their last 4. Everything, and I mean, everything, points towards this being a sucker bet, with people who don't pay enough attention still being down on Carolina for their putrid start and everyone riding the Saints until the wheels fall off. As much as I want to flop here, there is one stat that keeps haunting me. New Orleans defense has 16 interceptions and 6 touchdowns on the season, both league highs. Jake Delhomme continues to be the Panthers quarterback. If there was ever the rigt situation for another 5 interception game, this would be it. That's right, one player is enough into scaring me to go completely against all common sense and pick the Saints.

CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore- Do I think Baltimore is better? Oddly, yes, but unlike most betters, I'm willing to look past the Bungles past (and their moniker) and see that getting a 5-2 home underdog is great value.

San Diego (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS- I've flip-flopped on these last three games more times than I can count, which is never a good omen if you are thinking about heeding any of my advice for them. New York needs a win to stop the bleeding and to stay in the hunt in the resurgent NFC East. San Diego needs to win to, well, validate themselves and stay in the hunt for the AFC West. New York looks very bad lately, San Diego looks pretty good. Both teams are underperforming this season. Both teams should be near the top of their conference. I'll roll with the Chargers and the points.

Houston (+10) over INDIANAPOLIS- I think this is one of those games where Indianapolis can never quite fully pull away. They will do plenty to show the Texans that they are far and away the class of that division, but I think they will always be leading by a comfortable margin, but that Houston will score a time or two late to make the final score closer than the actual game.

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Tennessee- It's hard to pick which “future franchise quarterback” has gone through more drama in their young careers, Alex Smith or Vince Young. But this is not a psychological sports piece, so let's shelve that debate for now. Vince Young is not only a real life wild card for the Titans, but also a betting one as well. For some reason, that team finds a way to win with him behind center, even though it is usually not very pretty. Maybe one more week, and I'll be a believer, but it is too hard for me to jump behind them this quickly.

Last Week: 5-8
Season: 46-37-1