Everyman's Fantasy

If you've read any of my previous blog posts, you know that I love the last four rounds of drafts. Each team will get their share of good players early, and it is finding value in the late rounds that can set a team apart. While the others are busy lamenting the fact that the draft has been dragging on too long, are too drunk to care, or are busy picking up a third string quarterback, keep this cheat sheet handy and use it to scoop up this year's Steve Slaton.

Speaking of Slaton, he provides a good yard-marker for what constitutes a late round gem. Largely a draft afterthought (ADP 143), Slaton rewarded savvy owners with a rookie season for the ages, finishing as the seventh rated running back and carrying many teams deep into the playoffs.

For my purposes, I've set the ADP cut-off at 144, which is the end of the 12th round for a standard 12 team league. Round 13 is when the fun really begins, the last round for owners in a 15 round league who adhere to the defense-kicker in the final two rounds strategy (which is a mistake in itself, but that's for another post). Of course, if you really like a player, even one whose ADP is super high, don't hesitate to jump on him earlier. You never know which one of your buddies have eyes for the same player. Don't be the one who waits too long.

Aside from Slaton, there were plenty of other productive, even very good, fantasy players drafted after the 144 threshold. Kevin Walter (ADP 164) ended the season as the number #20 overall wideout, ahead of the much higher drafted Wes Welker and Laverneus Coles, and proved to be a reliable WR2. Another young wideout, Eddie Royal, burst onto the scene, ending the year one spot ahead of Walter, quite an accomplishment for a player who went undrafted in almost all leagues.

At running back, Pierre Thomas (ADP 170) and Tim Hightower (181) both became their team's lead backs well before mid-season and turned that opportunity into fantasy gold, finishing 21st and 33rd among backs.

Derrick Ward may have been the greatest revelation of all, selected last season at 182, ironically enough after his now backup's backup, Cadillac Williams. Ward, who rushed for over 1,000 yards spelling Brandon Jacobs, ended the season as the 22nd best running back and parlayed that success into a starting gig (and big contract) with the Bucs. Still not convinced? Well then pick up that back-up tight end in the 13th and have fun riding him to fantasy failure.

Running Back

The fact that time-shares are so common and because running backs have the highest risk of injury, the greatest chance of scoring a late round gem is at this position. Start by looking for backups who are playing behind veterans who are prone to injury or backups playing behind healthy players who are prone to sucking, and that should provide you with enough sleepers for ten fantasy drafts.

Shonn Greene (ADP 172)- Thomas Jones lead the AFC in rushing yards last season with 1312 yards. Thomas Jones is a good, not great running back. Thomas Jones is 31 years old and is being investigated by the NFL's anti-doping commission for his excessive use of Geritol and Metamucil.

James Davis (ADP 187)- BREAKING NEWS! Jamal Lewis sucks! The kid who broke all of Lewis's Georgia state high school records will also be taking his job by week 4.

Bernard Scott (ADP 207)- What is it with AFC Central teams from Ohio and their affinity for over-the-hill, slow and plodding running backs? Word out of camp is that Cedric Benson is “rejuvenated”. Rejuvenated to what? A man who has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry and has never rushed for over 750 yards in a season? I'll take my chances with the Abiline Christian product who should see plenty of 3rd down action even if the Bungles decide to stick it out with the Gazelle.

Glen Coffee (ADP 188)- Anytime a starting running back has an orthopedist in his Fave 5, its a good idea to own his backup. Coffee has turned some heads in preseason with his numbers, and while he has never been flashy, he is a workhorse type back. This is equal parts a vote of no confidence for Gore as it is a vote of confidence for Coffee.

Jerious Norwood (ADP 167)- This is the one instance where the starter ahead of Norwood, Michael Turner, is neither old nor sucks. The Falcons have publicly said that they want cut down on Turner's carries (376 last year), which should open up touches for Norwood, an explosive runner who can break one at any point. Don't expect Norwood to take your team to a championship, but he should come close to 1,000 total yards and 5 or 6 touchdowns, which are solid numbers for a bye week fill-in.

Jamaal Charles (ADP 171)- The second year man out of Texas finds himself behind Larry Johnson on the depth chart. If Larry's off-season workout regimen of bathing daily Fountain Of Youth helps him regain his 2005-2006 form, then Charles will be buried on the bench. If it doesn't, then Charles will see more and more work each week and could very easily wind up as the starter just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Smart moneys on the latter.

Michael Bush (ADP 190)- You didn't think I could write a whole sleeper column without a mention of the Man Crush did you? Remember, this was a man who was projected to be a first round draft pick before breaking his leg his senior year at Louisville, and who already has a 177 yard, 2 touchdown NFL game under his belt. One of these years...

Wide Receiver

Wideouts are a much more sketchy proposition when trying to predict what late rounder will hit big. Even if they do emerge and become a second or third wideout, its much harder to guarantee targets than it is carries. The best way to begin your search for a late round gem is to look at third or fourth receivers on high powered offenses or guys who have the potential to be top wideouts on more anemic ones.

Chris Henry (ADP 146)- Henry is two years and ten arrests removed from his most productive season (you know, that one where the Bengals were actualy good), where he had 9 touchdowns and 605 yards. He looks to be firmly entrenched in the #3 wideout spot in Cincy, behind Ochocinco and Coles. While they both will probably end up the season with more yards, look for Henry, who has always had a knack for the endzone, to lead the wideouts in touchdowns catches. For what it's worth, he's also leads the NFL in preseason yards and touchdowns.

Patrick Crayton (ADP 168)- When TO left, it was assumed that Crayton would fit nicely into the 2nd wideout spot oppposite of Roy Williams. Had that happened, his ADP would most likely be much higher. However, he was pushed early in camp by Miles Austin, and there was talk that Austin would leapfrog him on the depth chart. This caused his ADP to plummet, and it has yet to recover, making him an awesome value this late in the draft. While Dallas is chock-full of offensive weapons, Crayton should get ample opportunity to prove himself. Expect him to be a player who sees his name much higher going into next year's draft after an eye-opening 850 yard, 8 touchdown season.

Josh Morgan (ADP 146)- The poster child for “a number one on an anemic offense.” With Michael Crabtree holding out and Isaac Bruce aging years every day, Morgan, by default, grabs the #1 wideout spot in San Fran. With the two headed “monster” of Shaun Hill and Alex Smith at quarterback, expect productive but modest numbers, somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. But keep an eye on this vastly talented wideout, because with a better offense and a year or two of experience, he could find himself near the top of fantasy draft lists.

Steve Smith (ADP 154)- Whereas San Fran's wideout situation is bad, New York's is atrocious, Smith is the most polished of the young Giants receiving core and the most likely to step up and be fantasy “semi”-relevant. But remember, he has Eli throwing to him, or at least throwing in his general direction.

Davone Bess/Greg Camarillo (ADP 183/193)- The same type of player on the same team with relatively the same ADP and the same amount of catches last season. Take your pick. Before missing the last five games due to an ACL tear, Camarillo was leading the the Dolphins in catches (55) and yards (613) but like every other Dolphins receiver, had trouble finding the end zone (2 td's). After Camarillo went down, Bess stepped into the second wideout role behind Ted Ginn and put up almost identical numbers, pulling down 30 catches and 279 yards in those five games. As of right now, Bess holds a slight lead on the depth chart, but both are pushing hard for that starting spot. One of them could be very productive this season, but deciding which is anyone's guess.

Tight End

As more and more teams turn to tight ends to be weapons in the passing game, fantasy players are able to wait later and later to pick up tight ends that prove serviceable. For those who prefer to wait on a tight end and use the middle rounds to back up their starting running backs and wideouts, this is the list for you.

Visanthe Schiancoe (ADP 135)- I'm cheating a little here, as the “Purple Monster” falls outside of my self-imposed 144 threshold. But it is with good reason, as Schiancoe is one of the top values in all of fantasy football. Currently sitting at 135, which for the math un-inclined is the third pick of the 11th round, Schiancoe is the 13th TE coming off the draft board. While names such Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark being drafted ahead of him should come as no surprise, it should come as a surprise that those are the only four tight ends who had more fantasy points than Schiancoe last year. With the addition of the known tight-end lover Brett Favre, Schiancoe should be in for an even bigger year. While Schiancoe has received a lot of love from a certain male-driven, internet-based industry, it remains a mystery as to why the fantasy community has yet to jump on the Visanthe Train. Don't miss out!

Vernon Davis (ADP 190)- I can openly admit it; I'm an addict to potential, and thats why I love the final rounds so much. Like most real G.M.'s and fantasy football players, I'm a sucker for that little, nine letter buzzword that causes us to forgo the Laverneus Coles' of the world and instead jump on the Chris Chambers' year in and year out. And if you love potential, there is no more intriguing player in the NFL than Vernon Davis, the combine warrior who was drafted seven rounds too early by the Niners four years ago. I can offer up a bevy of rational explanations for drafting Davis; Mike Singletary has praised his work ethic and dedication throughout camp this year, he is playing for quarterbacks (Shaun Hill and Alex Smith) who prefer the dink and dunk to the longball, there are no legitimate wideouts to steal catches away from him, the 4th year TE leap (ok, that one's made up). But let's be honest. When you are drafting Davis, a man with 9 career touchdown receptions, you are drafting him because he is 6-3, 250, runs a 4.38 40 and carries the team bus to the airport when it breaks down. (want to marvel more at his athletic ability? Read this). If that is too much for you to pass up, then I welcome you to join me in drinking the kool-aid, year after year.