I slept on my picks more than a day, but after going 0-3 in the Thanksgiving games, I needed some additional time to get my head straight. Even with four days to think about the games, the results don't seem too clear, but I'll precede with the picks anyway.
CINCINNATI (-14) over Cleveland- This line seems high, and it is, but I'm not buying the Cleveland rejuventation hype. What they did last week was against Detroit, not division-leading Cincy. Also, after Cincy's last loss (a similar "let-down game" loss to Houston), they came back and thrashed the Bears 45-10. I think they make a similar statement this week.
Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- Take. The. Points.
Pittsburgh (+8.5) over BALTIMORE- Now that we know the line for this game, I can make a real prediction...and I'm still staying with Pittsburgh. I always liked Dennis Dixon, and while he may not be the long term answer, I think he comes out and has one of those "where did he come from" type games against an aging Baltimore D.
New England (pick'em) over NEW ORLEANS- I've wanted to pick New Orleans all week, but every time I've attempted to justify it, it doesn't seem right. The reasons; they are undefeated, they are at home, aren't real football reasons, and I think that New England is a better football team. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if New Orleans won, but I just wouldn't bet against the Pats, who have been in these situations before.
So far this week: 0-3
Your Week 12 picks are here, and in plenty of time for the Thanksgiving Day games. Last week's 9-6 week felt good, but was dampened a little by Arizona's failure to cover and Atlanta's valiant but unsuccessful upset bid against the Giants. You'll note that there are three games not picked below: Cincy-Cleveland, Carolina-New York Jets, and the granddaddy of them all, New England-New Orleans. I've decided to sleep on those three games and post them tomorrow.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
Last week, I didn't feel any underdogs could pull the upset. This week, in the spirit of the holiday of Thanks, I'm giving you two.
Jacksonville (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO- Not sure why San Fran is favored in this game. Jax is on a three game winning streak and is currently sitting #5 in the AFC. Sure, I have a vested interest in them now that I've futured them at 150/1, but I don't think that clouds my vision too much. Why wouldn't Jacksonville win this game? San Fran isn't that good.
ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle- The Rams best offensive weapon? Steven Jackson. Seattle's? Justin Forsett, a man who started out the season behind TJ Duckett and Julius Jones on the depth chart. Moneyline this baby!
Last Week: 0-1
Season: 7-2
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO- Just like Jacksonville, I feel like Miami is quietly sneaking up on people. They aren't good enough to make the playoffs, especially with Ronnie Brown out, but they are overshadowed in the AFC East by the Pats. While everyone else lumps the rest of the teams in division together as just mediocre, I think that Miami is a step above Buffalo, and this game should prove it.
Last Week: 1-0
Season: 7-2
MINNESOTA (-12.5) over Chicago- I said last week that all they did was cover big spreads, and lo and behold, they hammered Seattle. Why get off that gravy train now?
Arizona (+2.5) over Tennessee- As a pick'em, I was slightly hesitant to take my boys. I take the fact that the line has slid to +2.5 in the last four hours as a sign from above. Combine that premonition with Kurt Warner's return and it's like God himself has ordained this game.
SAN DIEGO (-14.5) over Kansas City- Great win for the Chiefs last week, who have been playing inspired ball lately, but the Chargers are just too hot right now.
Washington (+10) over PHILADELPHIA- Taking Washington makes me want to vomit. Taking Philadelphia to cover a 10 point spread makes it actually happen.
New York Giants (-7) over DENVER- There are about 600 quarterbacks I'd rather have pull my team out of full tail-spin mode than Chris Simms. And Kyle Orton isn't one of them.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over BALTIMORE- For the first time all year, I've had to go outside of 5dimes to get a line. Only BETUS had it offered, and they had the line at 2.5. Pittsburgh is desperate, but if Big Ben can't go, it falls on Dennis Dixon. Who knows where to go with this? I'll put faith in the “Pittsburgh way”, regardless of quarterback.
I now welcome you to the “This Line is Too High” portion of your programming:
DETROIT (+12.5) over Green Bay- 12.5 points on the road after a short week? It's the Lions, but come on.
Oakland (+14.5) over DALLAS- Bruce Gradkowski keeps this game under 14.5 on spunk alone. He's like Jeff Garcia without the Pro Bowl appearances and Playmate wife.
Tampa Bay (+13.5) over ATLANTA- A team who just lost their last two games shouldn't be favored by this much.
Last Week: 9-6
Season: 69-56-2
When does a 7-7-1 week feel way worse than it is? When your Lock of the Year and your other sure thing go down in flames and the only way you avoided total disaster was a last second money-line of the Cincinnati Bengals, that's when. So excuse me if I'm a little gun shy, but Denver losing to Washington (forget about even covering) and Atlanta dropping one to Carolina really have me reeling, seven days later. Silver lining? My Underdog Pick once again comes through. Who would have thought making the Raiders a favorite wasn't a good idea...
P.S.- These spreads are killer. I feel like the bookies are just goading me to take the underdogs, making spreads just a little too high in hopes that they will get me to enter into a sucker bet. And in some cases, they have succeeded. Remember, this is a season in which spreads couldn't go high enough for the first seven weeks, with big favorites covering anything Vegas could throw at them. But we've seen that trend slow down in the last couple weeks, and a season that started as a gimme for bettors has become increasingly difficult. In half the games, I could easily go the other way and feel comfortable. That is never a good sign.
Tom Nelson Underdog Pick to Win Outright
For the first time all season, I truly don't have a game in which I believe the underdog will win outright. Swing that Indy line to Baltimore a point, and I'm money, but with it sitting at pick'em, I'll have to look somewhere else. Only because I have to:
Atlanta (+8) over NEW YORK GIANTS- Coming off a bye, needing a victory to stay afloat, and playing a team that just lost its star running back, this sure seems like an easy pick. But I remain bullish on the Falcons, and I'm not even sure why. Pretty sure this is a matter of picking with my heart and not with my head, so before I change my mind, lets move on.
Season: 7-1
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
Indianapolis (pick'em) over BALTIMORE- Some people may be incredulous over this line, may even make claims like “Vegas is giving me money”, but after last week, I've learned my lesson (at least for a week). But I also understand this line. Indy is coming off a huge emotional victory in their biggest game of the regular season and has pretty much wrapped up home-field advantage through at least the second round. They are undefeated, have answered all their critics. Their motivation to win this game is low. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fighting tooth and nail for a wild card berth, is trying to re-establish itself after starting hot and then tanking, and need a signature win to regain some team confidence. Their motivation is HIGH. So, I understand this line. But understanding and agreeing with it are two completely different things. A good rule to follow: Never bet against an undefeated Peyton Manning team who does not need to cover points, regardless of the situation.
Season: 6-2
DETROIT (-3) over Cleveland- Last time Detroit was favored, I took them too. A team that is 1-26 in their last 27 games. Why? I'm not sure. Should I have learned my lesson? Probably. But it's Cleveland. Historically offensively inept Cleveland. A team that has scored nine points in their last three games and whose lone win came when they scored six. First one to get a defensive touchdown takes this one down!
JACKSONVILLE (-10) over Buffalo- I never think Buffalo is as bad as they are, and then I check their schedule each week. Drubbings by Tennessee and Houston their last two games (teams Jacksonville is somewhat comparable to), a loss to Cleveland (the aforementioned six point victory), drubbings by Miami and New Orleans. The only thing keeping them out of really bad status is a decent victory over the Jets in overtime and a Week 1 “should have won” against New England. Jacksonville meanwhile is clicking behind the hyphen brothers, Jones-Drew and Sims-Walker.
San Francisco (+7) over GREEN BAY- So I tell you last week that my boyish crush on Green Bay was finally over, I had cut the cord, that the Packers were dead to me. And what do they do? Go out and get their most impressive victory of the season over a streaking Dallas team. Seems about right.
MINNESOTA (-11.5) over Seattle- For some reason, I feel that the Vikings are a hard team to read. But why? Each time they have a big spread, they cover (Detroit week 10, Green Bay week 8, St. Louis week 5). However, my recognizing this phenomena probably spells doom for Minnesota and all who bet on them.
Arizona (-10) over ST. LOUIS- I've argued to many that St. Louis has been a different team the last couple weeks, and their results back up this claim (a near loss to the Saints, a win over Detroit). But even while I argue that, I still can't make myself fully believe it. I may regret this pick, but I'm going to have to ride my Cardinals for yet another week.
NEW ENGLAND (-11.5) over NY Jets- Interestingly enough, if New England wins last week against Indy, I take the Jets in a heartbeat this is an AFC East rivalry game, and a 10 point spread is almost always too high. But after throwing the game away last Sunday, and all the subsequent criticism, Bill Belicheck and the boys will be out for blood. New England attempt to run up the score in this one could make Steve Spurrier blush.
Cincinnati (-10) over OAKLAND- Cincy as a ten point road favorite has to be one of my favorite lines of all time. Good for Marv Lewis, Carson Palmer, and the rest of the Bungles. While I'm a little wary that the Bungles went from undervalued to overvalued to quickly (which they did), they saved me last week big time and continue to reward my trust in them. Of course, the bet is a lot easier to make when they are playing a squad whose number one pick three years ago can't beat out Bruce Gradkowski.
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO- I hate betting on the hometown team, but I hate the Bears even more. Chicago has absolutely no identity on offense, mostly due to the fact that Jay Cutler loves giving the ball to the other team on every other drive. Expect Sean McDermott to blitz like crazy, leading to even more confusion (and picks) for the “savior of Chicago”.
HOUSTON (-4) over Tennessee- Chris Johnson is very, very scary, and Vince Young has been playing decent football so far. But Houston has quietly been playing very good in the last six weeks, with convincing wins over Buffalo, San Francisco, and Cincinnati and two losses coming in close games to Indy and Arizona. I'll take a consistent (feels weird using that term with the Texans) team over a trendy team any day.
San Diego (-7) over DENVER- Wow, the tables have turned since these two teams last met in Week 6. After winning that contest, Denver sat at 6-0 and had already built a 3.5 game lead over the Chargers. Since then, Denver has gone on to get pummeled in three straight games while San Diego has picked up four straight wins and drawn even with Denver in the standings. After blasting them all season, last week I finally went big with Denver and they killed me. While it is weird to see the road team in this contest between two tied teams get seven points, this is one time where I feel that it is justified. Denver can do nothing right, and San Diego can do no wrong. Hopefully, that trend continues.
Washington (+12) over DALLAS- I guess Washington deserves some credit for their victory over Denver (every time I write it, it stings), although I still adhere to the theory that any time a team loses to Washington, they are beating themselves. Still, 12 points is a bit high for an NFC East contest in late November....I think.
Kansas City (+12) over PITTSBURGH- This is a bet that goes the other way if I never look at Kansas City's schedule for the last six weeks. Outside of a thrashing by San Diego, they have been semi-competitive; losing to Dallas in overtime, beating Washington, losing to Jacksonville by 3, and beating Oakland. I'm not sure why I feel this means they can hang with Pittsburgh, but at this point, I was looking for anything to hang my hat on.
Tampa Bay (+11.5) over NEW ORLEANS- Sometimes, you just have to say screw it and go with your boys.
Last week: 7-7-1
Overall: 60-50-2
Remember when Blake Griffin went down right before the season and I said that Brandon Jennings would be the Rookie of the Year? You don't? Well, that is probably because I didn't post it. But those who are close to me know that I've been stumping for the Gumby-haired kid from Compton for a while now, calling him the second most talented player in this draft. And tonight, he has made me seem like a pure genius.
Check out the box score.
While last week may not seem like such a great week, only going 7-6 against the spread, my more confident picks continue to hit. With both the Underdog and Lock of the Week picks winning again, I move to 6-1 with both of them on the year, a pretty impressive feat so far. And with Big Daddy Frank agreeing to bankroll me for the remainder of the season, big money could be at stake if that type of performance continues.
Looking ahead to this week, I'm not really confident in the Underdog pick, although it has to be made each week. I'm much, much more sold on Denver as the Lock of the Week and Atlanta-Carolina, which you're getting as a pick 'em at 5dimes. I'd hit those two games hard, and then ease off some but still feel confident with Cincy, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.
“This week's gonna be a good week, this week's gonna be a good, goooood weeeeek”!
Tom Nelson Underdog To Win Outright:
Kansas City (+1) over OAKLAND- It's the RAAAIIIIIIDDDDDERS...and they are favored. Ladies and gentlemen, you're NFC West. (Call this a cop out if you want (meow), it being a one point spread and all, but technically it fits the criteria. And look at the other games this week. The only other one I even considered was Cincinnati-Pittsburgh. If I had big balls, I'd take the Bungles, but as Heather can attest, I am not genetically gifted (meow).
Season: 6-1
Lock of the Week:
Denver (-3) over WASHINGTON- So you're a Vegas handicapper and you are losing money hand over fist this season in the NFL. What do you do? Go and gift wrap yet another Lock of the Week for the Everyman. Seriously. I can't even believe this line. Look at the lines for every other atrocious team in the league this week; Detroit +17, St. Louis +14.5, Tampa Bay +11, Cleveland +12. And yet here sits Washington, at +3. Please don't pull the home-field advantage card, either. Jason Campbell could give two shits about whether he is throwing picks at Fedex Field or any of the other 31 stadiums in the league. I'm not a huge fan of Denver or Kyle Orton, as I repeat each week, but let's be real. They are at worst a mid-level team who don't beat themselves. And as we've seen this year, Washington isn't beating anyone on their own. This is an ultimate LOCK.
Season: 6-1
Atlanta (pick 'em) over CAROLINA- So suddenly everyone is ready to anoint the Panthers as a “sneaky” pick? I don't get it. Their five week resurgence has consisted of a win over one good team (Cardinals), two wins by a combined 10 points over two of the worst teams in football (Redskins, Bucs), a loss to an average (at best) team (Bills) and a not as close as it looked 10 point loss to the Saints. Where exactly is this confidence coming from? Hey, I don't care, because I'm getting another easy call with the Falcons, who continue to get little respect from Vegas.
Cincinnati (+8) over PITTSBURGH- A perfect example of a typically overvalued commodity getting too much credit against a continually undervalued team. I told you last week that I thought Baltimore was better but that I saw great value in the Bengals being home underdogs. Well guess what, I was wrong. Baltimore wasn't better, and Cincinnati didn't just win, they won convincingly. And still, the Bengals remain the Bungles in everyone's eyes. Not me. I'll ride them until they let me down.
Jacksonville (+8) over NEW YORK JETS- Call me a roadie, a road whore, whatever, but this is yet another game where the home team is getting way too much respect. I ask again, what has New York done lately to deserve this spread? Is going 1-4 in your last 5 games, with your lone win over the hapless Raiders, an accomplishment all of a sudden? Sure, New York might win this game, move to 5-4, and continue to hoodwink their fans into thinking they have a shot at the playoffs, but it won't be by 8 points. Man, sometimes it seems too easy.
New Orleans (-14.5) over ST. LOUIS- This is scary line, no doubt. A road favorite getting 14.5 points seems like a tough pill to swallow. But then realize that you have the best team in football playing the worst team in football. And then realize that New Orleans is averaging 38 points a game while St. Louis is averaging 10. I didn't major in math, but my abacus is telling me that is a difference of 28 points per game. Let's get even deeper. New Orleans average margin of victory: 16 points. St. Louis's average margin of defeat: 18. Right, so now that line doesn't seem high enough, does it?
SAN DIEGO (pick 'em) over Philadelphia- And in our matchup of the league's two most confusing teams, we finally find ourselves with a home winner. What is that keeps me from believing in Philly? Is it still their loss to Oakland? Or lackluster performance against Washington the next week? Or maybe it is their absolute abysmal showing against the Cowboys in a game to determine first place. Whatever it is, the Eagles are not a pretty squad to watch, and certainly not an enjoyable one to root for. Sure, the Chargers have no running game and the Birds will probably blitz every down, but I don't think it matters. At this point, the Phillip Rivers-Vincent Jackson combo makes me feel much more comfortable than anything the Eagles are trotting out there.
ARIZONA (-9.5) over Seattle- I wish this line was a little lower, it being a divisional game and all (although, in the NFC West, does that even mean anything?). Still, the Cardinals have the firepower to score points in bunches, as evidenced by their absolute blitzing of Chicago last week, while Seattle has the ability to...come from behind against Detroit?
INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over New England- There is only one reason why I take Indy in this game and that is Peyton Manning. Sure, they may be banged up, but Peyton has done it all year with a motley cast of characters (Pierre Garcon? Austin Collie?). He is simply playing at a different level than anyone else right now, Tom Brady included.
Dallas (-2.5) over GREEN BAY- The Green Bay that I predicted to go 13-3, that rolled through the preseason, that was a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the NFC? That Green Bay is gone, out, sayanora, peace. It took a loss to the previously defeated Bucs to finally get me to realize that, but better late than never. My strange infatuation with this team got so bad that even this week I kept trying to rationalize a Green Bay 60/1 Super Bowl future. This is only days after they LOST. TO. THE. BUCS! Like finally getting over an ex-girlfriend, my and the Pack are over. Thankfully. No more thoughts of late night text messages in hopes of winning them back.
Baltimore (-12.5) over CLEVELAND- Cleveland has covered a 12.5 point spread only twice this year, once when they beat the Bills and once when they lost to the Bengals in overtime. Meanwhile, the demise of the Ravens may be premature. Their four losses have come against the Pats (6-2), the Vikings (7-1) and twice to the Bengals (6-2). This is still a good football team who happens to not be able to win games against the elite teams in the NFL, a category the Browns do not find themselves in.
Buffalo (+8) over TENNESSEE- I've flip-flopped three times on this game. A chronological breakdown:
Original thought: Great, so the Titans look good the last two weeks behind Vince Young. But can you really have faith in a player that needed a 59-0 drubbing and six consecutive losses by a 36 year old Kerry Collins in order to take over the starting spot (and scored a 6 on his Wonderlic?). I'll pass.
2nd thought: What? Buffalo has the league's worst rushing defense? They are giving up a whopping a 173 yards a game? Why would Jeff Fisher even have Vince Young play quarterback? Couldn't Chris Johnson just line up behind center and run each and every play? I know this bet hinges on Jeff Fisher being an intelligent human being, an iffy proposition, but having the best back in the league right now (I acquiesce Baldo) against this porous D is enough to sway me.
3rd thought: On further review of the stats, I've now noticed that Tennessee is giving up an AVERAGE of 30 points per game, more than anyone else in the league (yes, even the Lions!). Yes, Buffalo's offense is mediocre at best, but Tennessee has given up 27 to the Niners and 37 to the Jags, both teams not known for their explosiveness. When your D is last in the league in scoring defense, and you are expected to cover 8 points, that is never a good combination.
And when you are flip-flopping three times on a game between a 2-6 and 3-5 team, you should probably never bet that.
MIAMI (-11) over Tampa Bay- In the creamsicles, Tampa Bay covers easily, hey, maybe even wins outright. But a return to the pewter boys means a return to embarrassment. Thank you God for giving the world a clear sign that the Bucs need to return to the league's sweetest throwbacks full-time. Now it's up to Malcolm Glazer to listen.
MINNESOTA (-17) over Detroit- If I could abstain, I would. Who knows whether a pathetic Lions team will show up enough to cover 17 points or whether Minnesota will let off the gas enough to let them slip into a cover? Things I am sure about? Adrian Peterson running for over 150 yards and Matthew Stafford getting sacked at least 5 times. Enjoy, Lions fans!
Last Week: 7-6
Season: 53-43-1
Today, the Everyman hands out his mid-season fantasy awards. Instead of All-Pro teams like most places (how hard is that?), I've decided to give you three separate teams; Team Bungles, Team Saints, and Team Titans. Each is described below. The preseason rank is based on where they were drafted for their respective position, with data from Mockdraftcentral.com
Team Bungles
Just like the Bengals, little was expected from these players at the beginning of the season. Many of these players could be had in wee rounds of the draft, if they were drafted at all. But also like the Bengals, these players have found themselve to be much more dangerous than expected, and have been outperforming much more heralded players.
QB
Joe Flacco
Preseason Rank: 20
Position Rank: 14
Ahead of: Matt Ryan, Matt Cassell, Donovan McNabb
RB
Ricky Williams
Preseason Rank: 50
Position Rank: 10
Ahead of: Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber
Rashard Mendenhall
Preseason Rank: 49
Position Rank: 16
Ahead of: LT, LJ, Marshawn Lynch
WR
Miles Austin
Preseason Rank: 65
Position Rank: 3
Ahead of: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss
Steve Smith
Preseason Rank: 45
Position Rank: 7
Ahead of: Marques Colston, Roddy White, Chad Ochocinco
Mike Sims-Walker
Preseason Rank: None
Position Rank: 15
Ahead of: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens
TE
Vernon Davis
Preseason Rank: 18
Position Rank: 2
Ahead of: Everyone but Dallas Clark
The Saints
Coming into the season, the Saints were a potential playoff team, one that might even challenge for the division. Now? They are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl, and are looking virtually unstoppable. Likewise, all players on this list were drafted in the mid-rounds, and while they were expected to be nice complementary pieces, they were not counted on to be a team's stud. That has changed through 9 weeks, with many of these “good” players turning themselves into great players.
QB
Matt Schaub
Preseason Rank: 10
Position Rank: 2
Ahead of: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees
RB
Cedric Benson
Preseason Rank: 27
Position Rank: 7
Ahead of: Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Frank Gore
Ray Rice
Preseason Rank: 18
Position Rank: 6
Ahead of: Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook
WR
Vincent Jackson
Preseason Rank: 18
Position Rank: 1
Ahead of: Every single WR in the league
DeSean Jackson
Preseason Rank: 23
Position Rank: 8
Ahead of: Wes Welker, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin
Donald Driver
Preseason Rank: 30
Position Rank: 13
Ahead of: Dwayne Bowe, Housh, Santonio Holmes
TE
Dallas Clark
Preseason Rank: 4
Position Rank: 1
Ahead of: Everyone
The Titans
After going 13-3 last season, everyone (except myself) expected the Titans to be right in the middle of the hunt for homefield advantage going into the playoffs. Instead, the Titans started out on a six game losing streak and would need to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs. The players on this team also came into the season expecting to be near the top of their position but through 9 weeks have become fringe starters at best. Even a late season resurrection probably won't be enough to help lift the teams that depended on them out of the basement and into the playoffs.
QB
Donovan McNabb
Preseason Rank: 8
Position Rank: 20
People Ahead of Him: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, David Garrard
RB
LaDanian Tomlinson
Preseason Rank: 4
Position Rank: 38
People Ahead of Him: Teammate Darren Sproles, Broncos running backs (Correll Buckhalter, Knowshown Moreno)
Brian Westbrook
Preseason Rank: 10
Position Rank: 41
People Ahead of Him: Teammate LeSean McCoy, Julius Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw
WR
Calvin Johnson
Preseason Rank: 4
Position Rank: 48
People Ahead of Him: Pierre Garcon, Saints 3rd receivers (Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson)
Steve Smith
Preseason Rank: 7
Position Rank: 33
People Ahead of Him: The other Steve Smith, Johnny Knox, Patrick Crayton
Anquan Boldin
Preseason Rank: 10
Position Rank: 46
People Ahead of Him: Teammate Steve Breaston, Jacoby Jones, Jeremy Maclin
I had a hunch that last week would be tough and that theory proved right, as I went below .500 for the second time this season after a brutal slate of 4 o'clock games. The Underdog and Lock picks continue to hit though.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright
Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO- My favorite team in football is getting points against my least favorite team? Seems like the perfect choice for my underdog pick of the week.
Season: 5-1
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week
ATLANTA (-10) over Washington- The line has not moved since it opened at 10. How is that possible? Who is betting on the Redskins? Have they not watched a single quarter of football this year? Atlanta is a good team that was able to hang with the class of the league, New Orleans, last week. This line is not high enough, and I'm taking advantage of it.
Season: 5-1
Green Bay (-10.5) over TAMPA BAY- Speaking of lines that aren't high enough. Green Bay might not be as good as I thought they were pre-season, but Tampa is worse. Way worse. Outside of a seven point loss to Carolina and a three point loss to Washington, they have not kept a game within 13 points. Don't let the bye fool you. This team is not even competitive. You can't take the points.
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Miami- Miami played about as well as they could for three quarters against the Saints and still lost by 12. New England is the only team in the league that can score like the Saints, and I expect them to do so in this matchup. Joey Porter can talk all he wants, but his offense can't back it up.
Detroit (+11.5) over SEATTLE- Seattle could lodge another home shut-out (their two wins, against St. Louis and Jacksonville, have both been shut-outs at Qwest) and still not cover. 11.5 points is enough for me to take the Lions, even after that absymal performance against St. Louis.
Kansas City (+7.5) over Jacksonville- Just like Seattle vs Detroit, this is another game with absolutely no interest to me. These bottom teams (Detroit, KC) are bad, but Jacksonville and Seattle aren't much better. I'm taking the points in each contest.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) over DENVER- Denver, Denver, Denver, never getting any respect. 6-1, at home (where they are 3-0) and they are still 2.5 point dogs to Pittsburgh, who have lost on the road to both Cincinnati and Chicago already. And for some reason, I still can't get myself to pick them. I say it ever week, but I have a very hard time betting on a Kyle Orton-led team, a stubborness that would prove financially costly.
PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas- I hate, hate, hate picking Eagles games. A team this up and down is impossible to predict, especially by someone who has to listen to Eagles' analysis every day on talk radio. Does everyone outside of Philly feel as lost trying to gauge this team?
NEW ORLEANS (-14.5) over Carolina- It seems like a high spread, especially when you realize that New Orleans hasn't exactly rolled over their last two opponents (Miami and Atlanta), and Carolina is quietly won 3 of their last 4. Everything, and I mean, everything, points towards this being a sucker bet, with people who don't pay enough attention still being down on Carolina for their putrid start and everyone riding the Saints until the wheels fall off. As much as I want to flop here, there is one stat that keeps haunting me. New Orleans defense has 16 interceptions and 6 touchdowns on the season, both league highs. Jake Delhomme continues to be the Panthers quarterback. If there was ever the rigt situation for another 5 interception game, this would be it. That's right, one player is enough into scaring me to go completely against all common sense and pick the Saints.
CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore- Do I think Baltimore is better? Oddly, yes, but unlike most betters, I'm willing to look past the Bungles past (and their moniker) and see that getting a 5-2 home underdog is great value.
San Diego (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS- I've flip-flopped on these last three games more times than I can count, which is never a good omen if you are thinking about heeding any of my advice for them. New York needs a win to stop the bleeding and to stay in the hunt in the resurgent NFC East. San Diego needs to win to, well, validate themselves and stay in the hunt for the AFC West. New York looks very bad lately, San Diego looks pretty good. Both teams are underperforming this season. Both teams should be near the top of their conference. I'll roll with the Chargers and the points.
Houston (+10) over INDIANAPOLIS- I think this is one of those games where Indianapolis can never quite fully pull away. They will do plenty to show the Texans that they are far and away the class of that division, but I think they will always be leading by a comfortable margin, but that Houston will score a time or two late to make the final score closer than the actual game.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Tennessee- It's hard to pick which “future franchise quarterback” has gone through more drama in their young careers, Alex Smith or Vince Young. But this is not a psychological sports piece, so let's shelve that debate for now. Vince Young is not only a real life wild card for the Titans, but also a betting one as well. For some reason, that team finds a way to win with him behind center, even though it is usually not very pretty. Maybe one more week, and I'll be a believer, but it is too hard for me to jump behind them this quickly.
Last Week: 5-8
Season: 46-37-1
When do you know that you are witnessing an unprecedented NFL season? When six of the 13 games played have lines over 10 points? When every line for an entire week is either a three and a half point line or below (signifying a great game) or above a 10 point line (signifying a blowout)? When the Detroit Lions, who are 1-22 in their last 23 games, open as a 9.5 point FAVORITE over St. Louis, who have lost 17 straight, and the line swings six points towards the Rams? Yep, that's when. I ask you, who in their right mind is betting on a game between two teams who have both had 17 game losing streaks in the last year?
It keeps getting wilder and wilder each week, and I think this may be the week that the linesmakers finally catch up to us. After a cursory glance over the lines, none of the games jump out as “duh” picks, and confidence is low.
Also, each week from here on out, I will post the picks in order from most to least confident. By the time I get to the last couple games, I will openly admit that I would never bet any of them.
As always, home team is in CAPS and lines are courtesy of 5dimes.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS- This is the first week where upon first glance, I didn't see an underdog who I was sure would win. I'm still not too confident in this pick, but it should provide a tight divisional game between two mid-level teams, and the Wildcat always gives teams trouble.
Season: 4-1
“You Can Put It On the Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (-3) over BUFFALO- Houston is a good 4-3. Buffalo is a bad 3-4. Does that make sense? Let's put it this way: Houston has Matt Schaub, passer rating of 104.4 and fantasy extraordinaire. Buffalo has Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard grad and Wonderlic test extraordinaire.
Season: 4-1
ARIZONA (-10.5) over Carolina- What a difference seven weeks make. Carolina went into the second round of last year's playoffs as 13 point favorites over the Cardinals. Since then, the Cards have went to, and almost won, a Super Bowl and are a solid 4-2. Carolina has had to endured the Jake Delhomme implosion and is 2-4 with very little hope of returning to the playoffs.
NY Giants (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Both teams have had an awful two weeks, but getting dominated by New Orleans and Arizona may actually be more impressive than losing to Oakland and barely beating Washington.
Cleveland (+14) over CHICAGO- Cleveland is awful, very, very awful, but 14 is too big of a spread for a Chicago team that has scored over 20 only twice in six weeks. I'm fine with Indy, New England, New Orleans, etc. getting big spreads against Bottom Nine teams, but not Chicago.
DETROIT (-3.5) over St. Louis- I repeat, why is anyone betting on this game? Can you really predict how two teams who have one win between both of them in the last 34 games are going to play? Out of both teams, at least Detroit does something ok, and that is score points. That should be enough to cover against a team that averages 8.5 points per game.
BALTIMORE (-3) over Denver- If this is a pick'em, as it should be, I ride Baltimore hard. After dropping 3 in a row, they are desperate, and coming off a bye, they should be ready. Denver, on the other hand, is already three games ahead of San Diego, and it seems like just the type of game they should lose (although I've said that for the past four weeks). It is picking the winner that scares me, it is the points. This game will be close. Let's hope Baltimore does enough to cover.
DALLAS (-10.5) over Seattle- Seattle is bad, just a tiny step above the Bottom 9 (see Power Rankings). Dallas looks like they've put it together. Ten and a half points is high. But probably not quite high enough. It will be close.
Atlanta (+13) over NEW ORLEANS- An example of the public's short memory. Atlanta is a good team who looked flat last week and got hosed by a Dallas team that needed to win. Now, they are 13 point dogs? Yes, New Orleans is good, can score points on anyone, and will most likely control this game. But win by 13? Not buying it.
INDIANAPOLIS (-14) over San Francisco- In normal years, an undefeated Indy team at home would probably be a 10 point favorite over an a decent, 3-3 San Fran team. But after getting abused week after week by big favorites, Vegas can't set this line high enough. I'll keep taking Indy until they fail to cover.
Jacksonville (+2.5) over TENNESSEE- A classic “take the points game”. You know the NFL is screwy when a 0-6 team is giving points to a 3-3 squad. I know their fans don't go to games, but shouldn't they be given a little more respect.
SAN DIEGO (-17.5) over Oakland- Just another example of how crazy this season is. A 3-3 team is a 17.5 point favorite over a team with only one less win. And I'm taking them. Why? Because I'm a sucker for San Diego. An when starting Bruce Gradkowski is an upgrade, you have some problems.
GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota- Green Bay will win. But will they cover? That I'm not sure about. But hey, its the last pick of the week. Let's get this over with.
Season: 41-29-1
Another week hiatus, but this time they return with comments. I don't want to say I told you so, but my #1 team still reigns and we are eight weeks in. How many other power rankers (an exclusive group, I assure you) can say that? Meanwhile, at the bottom, comments aren't necessary or deserved. It's getting ugly down there.
1. New Orleans (1)- My #1 all season just keeps getting better and better. In two weeks, they've beaten their top contender for the NFC crown (Giants) and shown they can handle adversity (down 21 to Miami). This is the type of season New Orleans fans dreamed about when Reggie Bush was drafted. Ironically, the team's running game revolves around two undrafted players, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.
2. Indianapolis (2)- In my mind, this is the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and Peyton Manning should be the front runner for the MVP. Why?
3. New England (10)- When you outscore opponents 94-7 in the last two weeks, you deserve to jump up in the power rankings.
4. Denver (4)- Undefeated and still not ranked ahead of a team they beat three weeks ago? Maybe it's unfair, but you tell me you'd take Denver and Kyle Orton over New England and Tom Brady right now.
5. Pittsburgh (13)- Pittsburgh and Minny are both very good, not great. Minny is winning with Brett Favre being a glorified game manager (odd) and Pittsburgh is winning by throwing the ball all over the field (even odder). Chester Taylor's lack of stick-um gave Pittsburgh the win last week, and the slight nod in these power rankings.
6. Minnesota (5)- See above.
7. Green Bay (17)- Don't look now, but here come everyone's preseason darlings! With the Minny loss, they are only a game and a half back. Beating Favre in his homecoming game would mean a lot more than simply making up a game, that is for sure.
8. Cincinatti (8)- The old Bengals would never bounce back like that after a disheartening loss to Houston. The new Bengals? They look about as good as their rejuvenated running back, The Gazelle, who inexplicably still leads the league in rushing yards.
9. Arizona (14)- After dismantling the Giants, the Cards Super Bowl odds have dropped form 40/1 to 23/1 and people are jumping on the bandwagon. I'll begrudginly move over.
10. NY Giants (3)- Two straight losses has everyone wondering what is the real Giants. I'm hoping its the one we say struggle against the Saints and Cardinals.
11. Dallas (16)- They may not have the name recognition of Roy Williams and Marion Barber, but Miles Austin and Tashard Choice have proven that they are more reliable and more valuable to the Cowboys.
12. Atlanta (6)- One bad week is not enough to dampen my love for the Falcons. They are still the best bet to lock up the first NFC wild card spot.
13. Houston (21)- With two straight wins over decent teams, the Texans may have finally rid themselves of their Jekyll and Hyde personality, and they are doing it behind the arm of fantasy's top ranked quarterback, Matt Schaub.
14. Baltimore (9)- Baltimore fans are hoping that their team figured things out during the bye week, because they face a tough next five weeks, with games against Denver, Cincy, Indy, and Pittsburgh.
15. Philadelphia (7)- Not much to say about the Eagles victory over Washington other than that they won. They did little to inspire confidence, especially on the heels of the stinker they threw up against the Raiders.
16. San Diego (11)- 16 is the perfect spot for this Chargers team. They are 3-3. They have beaten bad teams (Kansas City, Oakland) and lost to good teams (Pittsburgh, Denver). They have as much talent as any team in the league, and as little leadership as any team in the league. San Diego, its football purgatory.
17. NY Jets (15)- The Mark Sanchez lovefest officially ended after his five turnover performance two weeks ago against Buffalo, and Jets fans should be rejoicing. Every rookie, especially quarterbacks, will have ups and downs, and now that Sanchez has experienced the lows of the league, he can focus on simply improving each week. It is also a wake up call for Rex Ryan and his coaches, who now know that they can't throw everything on Sanchez's shoulders and hope for success.
18. Buffalo (27)- Yes, the Bills have won two straight games, and technically are very much alive in the playoff hunt. However, they are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, a player best known for his perfect Wonderlic score. Ask Vince Young, that don't mean nothing.
19. Jacksonville (22)- If fans don't want to pay to watch Jacksonville, I don't want to write about them for free.
20. San Francisco (18)- The Cardinals top competition for the division comes from a team that has a quarterback controversy between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. And you wonder why I'm betting the Cards hard?
21. Chicago (13)- Hey Chicago, have fun with your less talented, just as cocky, younger Brett Favre. 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through six weeks is exactly the performance that Denver did not want to deal with, and that Chicago thinks is worth $15 million a year.
22. Miami (19)- Things the Wildcat is good for: Controlling the ball, protecting a quarterback who shouldn't be starting in the NFL, reviving Ricky Williams career. Things the Wildcat is not good for: Coming from behind, scoring after the third quarter, beating the Saints.
23. Seattle (20)- In Seattle's two wins, they have shut out both opponents. In their four losses, they have given up an average of 27 points. Incredibly, with Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee still on the schedule, Seattle has a chance to get four more shutouts.
Want to know how bad the bottom 9 are? Outside of Oakland's win over Philly, not a single team in the Bottom 9 has beaten a team outside of this wonderful nineumvirate. They are a combined 9-51. Vegas is going nuts, making spreads 14, 15, 16 points when one of these teams IS PLAYING AT HOME and they still aren't covering. Four or five of them could legititally make claims that they are the worst team, even Washington, which has two wins (by a combined 5 points over the Rams and Bucs). Tennessee, which is winless, is ranked ahead of SIX OTHER TEAMS. Yes folks, this is the Bottom 9 for ya.
24. Carolina (23)
25. Detroit (25)
26. Tennessee (28)
27. Cleveland (26)
28. Kansas City (30)
29. Oakland (32)
30. Washington (24)
31. Tampa Bay (29)
32. St. Louis (31)