Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Coming Clean: Week 3 Betting Guide


While I didn't match the sterling 12-4 record of last week, I did managed to break .500 once again. It may only be 8-7, but I'm riding high once again after nailing the Detroit win. One more week like this, and you can replace the world gambling with investing. May the Pabst continue to flow!

Highlights:

CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh doesn't beat anyone by more than three points. In fact, they don't even beat teams like Chicago anymore.

Or Cincinnati. Be very worried, Steel-town. You are oh so close to being 0-3. And it feels soooo good!

NY Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY- The NFL: Home to the transitive property. Tampa Bay lost to Dallas by 13. Dallas lost to New York Giants by 2. Tampa Bay loses to New York by 15 (or at least more than 7).

Did I write 15? Fingers must have slipped. I meant 24.

DETROIT (+7) over Washington- Washington hits rock bottom when it loses outright to the resident rock bottom dwellers Detroit Lions! There, I said it. It's on paper. And the delete key won't work, so let's move on.

Just like its namesake, the Tom Nelson Pick of the Week is not for the faint of heart. Go big of go home, and for the second straight week, I've nailed it. Nothing better than seeing the second-longest losing streak in NFL history snapped at the hands of the most boring, bland, utterly uninspiring football team in the league. Go Hogs!

NY JETS (-1.5) over Tennessee- Feels like a perfect trap game, with Tennessee absolutely needing a win and the Jets riding high after defeating the Pats. But...I can't get the image of the Titans defense absolutely self-destructing against Houston. Jets really start putting pressure on the rest of the AFC East by moving to 3-0.

How many former USC quarterbacks will become legitimate NFL starters before “The Chosen One” gets onto the field? Only two more years of beer bongs in the summer and clipboard- holding in the fall until Matt Barkley makes it three.

Lowlights:

HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Both Houston and Jacksonville are more than willing to give up 30 points to their opponents. Houston is capable of scoring 30 points. Jacksonville is not. That makes this pick easy.

Jacksonville 31, Houston 24. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Just plain wrong.

Cleveland (-14) over BALTIMORE- When #2 and #32 in your power rankings meet, the spread should be this big. But, for some odd reason, this....just...seems...too....high.

Tease the line 17 more points and my prediction would have been dead on!

OAKLAND (+1) over Denver- Ask yourself this: Is Denver good enough to be 3-0? If you're not laughing out loud, then you don't know football.

Now entered into the betting lexicon, the JakeMarcus Russhomme Collary: When deciding between a bad team and a really bad quarterback, pick the bad team. Always.

ARIZONA (-1.5) over Indianapolis - Both quarterbacks have two legitimate MVP's (Peyton's 2009 award ranks up there with Karl Malone in MVP travesties) and one Super Bowl ring. One quarterback has Anquan Boldin as his second wideout. The other has Pierre Garcon.

Guess its time to scrap that Peyton Manning-Kurt Warner comparison article I've been working on.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Week 3 Betting Guide

After a scorching 12-4 start to the season, the fear that comes with high expectations is weighing heavy on my confidence. While everything seemed so clear last week, this certainly felt like a struggle. Is it something in the Rome air? Is it the pizza and gelato coma I've been in for three days? Regardless, like the gladiators who performed only a few kilometers away, I soldier on, determined to slay Vegas.

As always, home team in caps and spreads courtesy of 5dimes.



Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
DETROIT (+7) over Washington- Washington hits rock bottom when it loses outright to the resident rock bottom dwellers Detroit Lions! There, I said it. It's on paper. And the delete key won't work, so let's move on.
Season: 1-0

“You Can Put It On the Board!” Lock of the Week:
NY Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY- The NFL: Home to the transitive property. Tampa Bay lost to Dallas by 13. Dallas lost to New York Giants by 2. Tampa Bay loses to New York by 15 (or at least more than 7).
Season: 0-1

PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) over Kansas City- Come see a former Houston Cougar battle a quarterback who never took a college snap! Welcome to the UFL, err, NFL.

HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Both Houston and Jacksonville are more than willing to give up 30 points to their opponents. Houston is capable of scoring 30 points. Jacksonville is not. That makes this pick easy.

Cleveland (-14) over BALTIMORE- When #2 and #32 in your power rankings meet, the spread should be this big. But, for some odd reason, this....just...seems...too....high.

Atlanta (+4.5) over New England- Matt Ryan is turning into pre-2007 Tom Brady. He may not put up the biggest numbers, but he makes plays when he needs to, doesn't turn the ball over, and most importantly, he wins. Atlanta keeps it close, and may even pull off the upset.

Green Bay (-7) over ST. LOUIS- The Rams lost to a team that I've now predicted to lose to the Detroit Lions. Greatest Show on Turf, where art thou?

NY JETS (-1.5) over Tennessee- Feels like a perfect trap game, with Tennessee absolutely needing a win and the Jets riding high after defeating the Pats. But...I can't get the image of the Titans defense absolutely self-destructing against Houston. Jets really start putting pressure on the rest of the AFC East by moving to 3-0.

New Orleans (-5.5) over BUFFALO-
One thing I wouldn't do when I play New Orleans: Run a hurry up offense. Giving the ball back to Drew Brees and company as quickly as possible seems like a very, very bad idea. Which Bills defensive lineman choke slams Dick Jauron first?

CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh doesn't beat anyone by more than three points. In fact, they don't even beat teams like Chicago anymore.

OAKLAND (+1) over Denver- Ask yourself this: Is Denver good enough to be 3-0? If you're not laughing out loud, then you don't know football.

ARIZONA (-1.5) over Indianapolis - Both quarterbacks have two legitimate MVP's (Peyton's 2009 award ranks up there with Karl Malone in MVP travesties) and one Super Bowl ring. One quarterback has Anquan Boldin as his second wideout. The other has Pierre Garcon.

Carolina (+9) over DALLAS- Jerry Jones would do anything to avoid going 0-2 in his new billion dollar digs. Like hanging the scoreboard too low. Wait, that wasn't a way to cheat, it was just a huge oversight? My bad. Meanwhile, Tony Romo is working hard to supplant Jake Delhomme as the NFL's most efficient turnover machine.

San Francisco (+7.5) over MINNESOTA- What odds would Vegas have given you during the preseason that this game would feature two undefeated teams? 20-1? 50-1? 100-1? One team emerges unscathed, and I have sneaky suspicion that it could be the Niners. I'm not quite ballsy enough to make the moneyline bet, but I would take the points.

SEATTLE (+1) over Chicago-
This week's worst matchup features two teams who don't do anything well. If the game ends 0-0, then Seattle covers!

Last week: 12-4
Season: 12-4

Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Here they are, in simple, raw form.

Last week's rank in parenthesis. Glad to see the rest of the mainstream media has jumped on the Saints train with me. You're a week late, gentlemen.

Rising: B-More, J-E-T-S, Hotlanta, Cincy, Fins
Sliding: The State of Pennsylvania, Green Bay, Tennessee, Jacksonville (whoa!)

1. New Orleans (last week: 1)
2. Baltimore (11)
3. NY Giants (6)
4. Indianapolis (3)
5. NY Jets (16)
6. Atlanta (12)
7. San Diego (7)
8. Minnesota (10)
9. New England (5)
10. Dallas (9)
11. San Francisco (13)
12. Arizona (14)
13. Pittsburgh (4)
14. Philadelphia (2)
15. Green Bay (8)
16. Buffalo (18)
17. Houston (19)
18. Cincinnati (23)
19. Miami (24)
20. Denver (20)
21. Chicago (26)
22. Seattle (18)
23. Tennessee (16)
24. Oakland (23)
25. Carolina (27)
26. Washington (22)
27. Jacksonville (15)
28. Tampa Bay (28)
29. Kansas City (29)
30. St. Louis (32)
31. Detroit (30)
32. Cleveland (31)

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

THE WORLD'S GAME NOT THE AMERICAN GAME


For many years Americans have debated whether or not the US has room for another major sport. I am a die hard fan of all the four major sports in the US, but there’s one sport that is more near and dear to my heart than any of those. The “Beautiful Game”, the game of Soccer.

People have different views on this argument, some think it is only a matter of time before soccer is a top four sport in America and some believe that it is simply too boring to become a popular American sport. I have the answer to this debate and the fact that I have experienced soccer from both ends of the spectrum (American soccer and World soccer) qualifies me to speak on this matter.

The Answer is: Soccer will never be a top sport in America unless they fix a few things:

There are a few reasons for soccer’s unpopularity among adults in America, but I will focus on two. First, American men grew up watching other sports. Even the people who are playing soccer today prefer to watch a good football game over a good soccer game. There is a simple explanation to this: men like to see other men get fucked up. Consider this, would you rather see Sheldon Brown deliver another hit on Reggie Bush and leave him lying on the ground in pain or see Ronaldinho dribble through the defense and score a beautiful goal? I am very confident that most Americans will choose option number one.
The other reason soccer remains unpopular in the States is the fact that Americans don’t want to pay to watch second tier athletes.

Let’s start with the US national team for instance. How many people reading this article got to see the US men’s soccer team play Honduras or Trinidad Tobago? Those were huge games they had to win to put them in a position to qualify for the most important tournament in the world (the World Cup) and it was on ESPN Classic, a channel available to you for an extra ten dollars a month. Not many people watched those two games or even knew that the games happened. If I ask people whether they saw the Red Sox and the Orioles play their meaningless mid September game on ESPN, I am sure a much higher percentage will have seen it.

The passion for soccer isn’t here at all. How many MLS champions actually get a parade? In most people’s opinion, it doesn’t even count as a championship for the city. It is about as important as the Philadelphia Soul (not the Phils) bringing Philly their first championship in 25 years.

Don’t get me wrong, I am a proud fan of the US national team and will cheer for them against any other country other than my native Brazil, but until people actually get behind them they have no chance of becoming a world power. Don't let the confederations cup fool you, we are ways from being a world power, and it only took Brazil a half to prove it. This country is based on what “the people” want, and soccer is not at the top of the list yet.My second point goes back to the people in charge of the sport in this country and to say that the MLS is a lousy league would be an understatement of giant proportions, but if you compare the MLS against the mid-level leagues of the world in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, you will see how far we are as a country from becoming a soccer power. These (Latin American) leagues are feeder leagues to the three main leagues (Spain, England and Italy). If the MLS was smart they would be traveling to South America and getting many of these players for pennies on a dollar when they are young. Until they recognize that the level of play in America is not good enough they will struggle with TV ratings and therefore not generate enough interest from the public for the league to grow.

What I don’t understand is how the MLS doesn’t see that people don’t want to watch mediocre soccer. For example, the Barcelona vs. Chelsea friendly that was hosted in the US is more appealing to watch than USA vs. Honduras in a World cup qualifying match. ESPN was confident enough that they would get good enough ratings to have the Chelsea vs. Barca game live on one of their main networks on prime time on a Wednesday night. If this doesn’t prove my point than maybe I am the blind one.

Finally, people in America are used to paying top dollar for the best leagues in the world. We have the best league in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, so please tell me why I would waste my time watching one of the worst soccer leagues in the world. The money and facilities are here but those in charge must work hard to speed up the growth of the sport.
As a lover of the game it saddens me to see all this potential go to waste. We have good players but we won’t be the power we should be until our mentality changes.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Coming Clean: Week 2 Betting Guide

“Because life without accountability is far too enjoyable”



Not even a fantasy thrashing at the hands of Chris Johnson could quell the joy that radiated through the room last night as I struck gold with my first 2009 betting guide. Not only were the games yesterday awesome from a football perspective and a fantasy perspective (for owners of Matt Schaub, Frank Gore, and the aforementioned Chris Johnson), but also from a bankroll perspective. An 11-4 Sunday means Pabst for everyone!

Highlights:

St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.

There is no quarterback that consistently delivers mediocrity like Jason Campbell. Three field goals later, the Redskins are making me look like Nostradamus.

Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.

Bingo Bango! Tom Nelson Underdog's now 1-0 thanks to Tennessee's Kris Kringle-esque generosity.

Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.

Had it not been such a gimme, I would have made the Cards my Tom Nelson pick of the week. Kurt Warner's near flawless performance made a mockery of a line that never should have been set that high to begin with.

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)

No drama with the scoreboard (boo!), no injuries to either team (boo!) but an almost perfect call with the prediction (yeah!)

Lowlights:

New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or one less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.

That same Mr. Brady was unable to lead his team to a single touchdown for the first time since 2006. And Mr. Sanchez (he has earned it now) became only the second rookie quarterback since Big Ben (not bad company) to beat a Belicheck-lead Patriots squad.

Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl participants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.

While I'll readily admit that I didn't see this coming (Pittsburgh was my Lock of the Week), this is a fluke, not a trend. Ironically enough, the Bears won because Cutler played like Kyle Orton, not like Jay Cutler. If you're a Steelers fan though, you have be worried about the offense, which has only managed 27 points through 2 games. And after watching Houston hang 34 on Tennessee's D, the excuse that they've played against two of the leagues' best defenses is rendered moot. If you're a Chicago fan, enjoy this victory, because it will be one of six you'll have all year.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

NFL Betting Guide: Week 2

We're through one week of the season, and for the first time in years I don't find myself on the wrong side of .500. VICTORY! Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, far more pressing matters (like driving 20 dozen baseballs 9 hours to Germany) hampered me from making any predictions whatsoever. Not that I'm complaining. It allowed me to salvage my pride, and bank account, for one more week.

Before getting to NFL picks, a quick scouring of World Series futures reveals an interesting value play. San Francisco, which now sits only 2.5 games out of the NL Wild Card and boasts the best rotation in all of baseball (Lincecum, Cain, a rejuvenated Barry Zito, and Mr. No-No Johnathan Sanchez) are a steal at 50/1. If they can sneak by the "dropping like a Rock-ies", their staff gives them as good a chance as any in the wide-open NL. But snap them up quick, because that line will be changing quickly, especially as they inch closer to the wild card lead.

Onto the NFL:


The Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright: Houston Texans

"You Can Put It On the Board!" Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO

As always, the spreads are courtesy of 5dimes and the home teams are in CAPS.

ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina- The more intriguing bet involving this game is the over/under for Jake Delhomme turnovers. Take the over on anything in single digits.

St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.

Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.

New Orleans (pick'em) over PHILADELPHIA- Combined, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, and Jeff Garcia have 12 Pro Bowl appearances. Unfortunately, all three will also be starting the game on the bench for the Birds. Drew Brees vs. Kevin Kolb in a pick'em? That's a no-brainer.

New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or one less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.

Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY- The classic “who looked better in defeat” question? I'm going with the Raiders, whose running game was very productive against San Diego last week. Baby steps, Oakland, baby steps.

Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.

GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati- After just finishing the season finale of Hard Knocks, its awfully tough to pick against the Bengals. But then I remember its the Bengals. Silver lining: everyone's a winner if Ochocinco does the Lambeau Leap.

Minnesota (-10.5) over DETROIT- It's entirely possible (probable?) that Adrian Peterson could have over 400 yards rushing after Week 2. The assault on 2,105 (sans goggles) gains real legitimacy courtesy of the Detroit Lions.

BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tampa Bay- Tampa Bay with Adrian Peterson (who they passed on in the 2007 draft): fun to watch, explosive on offense, Super Bowl contenders. Tampa Bay with Gaines Adams (who they drafted #5 in 2007): Not so much.

SAN FRANCISCO (pick'em) over Seattle- It's Christmas in September with two pick'ems in one week. Lest I remind you again, Shaun Hill is now 9-3 as a starter.

Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl paricipants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.

DENVER (-3) over Cleveland- After Week 12 last season, many in the football world were pegging the Broncos as darkhorse Super Bowl contenders. 4 straight losses, the trade of your franchise quarterback, a hissy fit by your star wideout, and a lucky Week 1 victory over the Bungles later and they are neutral field equals with the lowly Cleveland Browns. They're bad, but not that bad.

SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Baltimore- Can San Diego contain the juggernaut that is Joe Flacco? Uhh, yes.

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)

Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI- I've hammered the road team all week, why stop now?

Friday, September 18, 2009

Work Can Wait

An instant rebuttal to anyone who argues that soccer is truly a man's game...



Need more proof? [Soccer's Flopping Problem]

If Vlade Divac and Anderson Varejo had a baby, he would instantly become a star for the Azzurri. [All-Time NBA Floppers, One of These is Not Like the Others]

Women should never be looked at as a piece of property. Unless, of course, they tattoo your name on the small of their back. Or you're Mark Grace. Or both. [Simply. Amazing.]

Hey, it's Charles Rogers, everybody! One of Matt Millen's better decisions as a GM. [Charles Rogers Need His Nap, Ay Day, Ay Day]

I could watch this ay day, ay day. Don't have time to for the entire interview? Skip to 2:38 for the best parts.