Everyman's Fantasy

Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Arizona (+2.5) over SEATTLE- In both Seattle's wins this season, they have shut out their opponent. You can bet (and I will) that the same will not happen against Cards, who seem to have regained their offensive mojo against the Texans last week. In a week of very tough picks, this seems too easy.
Season: 3-0

“You Can Put It On The Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI- After three straight down to the wire wins against divisional opponents, the Bengals are in for a huge let-down game. Houston can score with the best of them, and will cover easily, if not win outright.
Season: 2-1

Kansas City (+7) over WASHINGTON- This is not a pick for Kansas City, it is a pick against Washington. After losing to the Giants in Week 1 by six, the Redskins have beaten St. Louis by 2, lost to Detroit by 5, beaten Tampa Bay by 3, and lost to Carolina by 3. What about those performances inspires someone to make them SEVEN POINT FAVORITES? This is the team that lost to the Detroit Lions and has beaten the league's worst two teams by a combined 5 points. No thanks.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Denver- Best stat I've heard this week: Kyle Orton is 18-2 as a starter at home. Watch out Trent Dilfer, he is quickly coming for your mantle as the NFL's best game manager, which entitles him to years and years of mockery. Fortunately for San Diego, the game is not in Denver, and the bubble has to burst eventually. This is the week for it.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina- Maybe I'm picking with my heart, but Josh Johnson has added a dimension to this team that they sorely lacked with Byron Leftwich; namely, a quarterbacks whose feet aren't stuck in concrete. More importantly, only a world-class masochist would take a Jake Delhomme-lead road favorite.

Buffalo (+10.5) over NY JETS- Something about this game screams close. I mean, Buffalo's vaunted D did hold the incomparable Derek Anderson to 17 yards passing last week.

JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) over St. Louis- I'm done falling into the trap of thinking St. Louis will keep it close. And it only took 2 shut outs in 5 weeks for me to realize the error of my ways.

ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago- Hate the Bears, love the Falcons.

Let's quick pick the rest, since I'm having a difficult enough time even picking winners.

Baltimore (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

Detroit (+15) over GREEN BAY

PITTSBURGH (-15) over Cleveland

Philadelphia (-15) over OAKLAND

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Tennessee

N.Y. Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

Season: 26-19