Everyman's Fantasy

Will the betting gods spew down their wrath upon me for missing a week of picks, even if it was to satisfy betting's twin vice, drinking? After two straight weeks above .500, I'm expecting the worst. Without further ado:


Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Season: 2-0

"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?

1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.

But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Season: 1-1

Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.

New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.

BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.

DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.

Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY- What's the most positive thing that can be taken away from the Chiefs first four games? The almost beat the JaMarcus Russell-lead Raiders? They only lost the Giants by 11? Larry Johnson's body hasn't self-destructed yet? (wait, isn't that a negative). There are a lot of bad teams in this league, and the Chiefs are fighting hard for that number one spot.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-16) over Oakland- Out of all the bad decisions Al Davis has made over the past few years, getting rid of Jeff Garcia has got to be the worst. Now, instead of having the option of benching JaMarcus and his 44.5 passer rating and putting in a quarterback who has multiple Pro Bowl appearances, he gets to decide between Bruce Gradkowski (bad), Charlie Frye (badder) or sticking with JaMarcus (baddest). And this whole time you thought it was DHB's fault he wasn't catching balls?

ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.

NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.

Washington (+4) over CAROLINA- What do you do when two teams you hate and wouldn't ever trust to cover a spread play against each other? Take the points!

ST. LOUIS (+11) over Minnesota- One of these weeks, St. Louis will keep it competitive against a team not named the Redskins. Why will it be this week? No clue, other than the fact that I am a huge Steven Jackson apologist and I think he relishes the chance to go against another one of the league's best backs.

Tampa Bay (+16) over PHILADELPHIA- Tampa Bay has now lost games by 13, 13, 24, and 3. That means I have a ¾ chance of them covering, right?

BALTIMORE (-10) over Cincinatti- It was so hard to decide this game that I decided to sleep on it. And even that didn't help. So, I'll just give in and go with my first instinct. Let's go Ravens!

Season: 20-11