Saturday, October 17, 2009

Coming Clean: Week 5 Betting Guide

And there you have it. Five weeks into the season, and I have my first under .500 performance. It was bound to happen, but I still can't forgive the J-E-T-S, who squandered my hope of continuing my march towards respectability with a clunker against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, I believed in you, and you couldn't pull out a win against a team who doesn't even play with a quarterback? What is this world coming to?

While 6-8 doesn't hurt too terribly bad, it does bring the season record to 26-19, which sounds rather pedestrian. I will take pride in the fact that this week, both my Lock of the Week and Underdog to Win picks both came through again, and that on the season, I'm still perfect on the Underdogs.

Highlights:

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.

Atlanta's offense coming alive? Check. San Fran's offense having trouble coming from behind? Check. Another underdog win? Check.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?

1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.

But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.

Where to start with this game? How about we start, and end, with this statement: Tennessee is really, really bad, and this week, I promise I won't attempt to talk myself into taking them again.

DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.

Well, that is about exactly what happened. Big pat on the back.

ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.

Big fantasy games for Fitz and Andre Johnson, very respectable ones for Warner and Schaub, but an even bigger win for the Cardinals. Eventhough they are a half game behind, look like the front-runners in the NFC West, for what that's worth.

Lowlights (and there were a lot of them):

NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.

I guess if by swallowed up, I mean kept under 32 points, well then yes, they sure did get gobbled up.

New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.

Someone out there, who is much smarter than me, took the Broncos moneyline on this game. I would like to shake that man (or woman's) hand, because I didn't see this coming in a million years.

Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.

When you make a statement with three distinct parts to it and each one is completely and utterly wrong, what do you do? Move on!

BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.

Not only did Cleveland stay close, but they won! With a quarterback who completed two passes all game! Maybe the good people in the NFL's two most blue-collar towns appreciate this kind of football, but I sure don't. Thank you for keeping it off my tv. Wow.

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