Back in the States and it is even harder for me to post on time? These weddings are really taking a toll on my blogging life. I'm posting my picks, which were originally made on a napkin at Doc McGrogan's about 10 minutes before gametime, for posterity's sake. I promise more posts and more punctuality from here on out.
After going 7-7 last week, and 6-8 the week before, I'm relying on road favorites to ride high this week and get me back on track. Has there ever been a week with huge road favorites in the history of the NFL? Green Bay, the Jets, Indy, and New England are all giving atleast 10 points while traveling, with San Diego and New Orleans not far behind, and I'm picking all but Indy to cover. Crazy!
As always, home team in CAPS and lines from 5dimes.
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Atlanta (+5.5) over DALLAS
Season: 4-0
"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Buffalo (+7.5) over CAROLINA
Season: 3-1
Arizona (+7.5) over NY GIANTS
New England (-16.5) over TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
CINCINATTI (pick em) over Chicago
New Orleans (-7) over MIAMI
New York Jets (-10) over Oakland
Green Bay (-10) over CLEVELAND
San Diego (-5.5) over KANSAS CITY
ST. LOUIS (+15) over Indianapolis
Minnesota (+7.5) over Pittsburgh
Last Week: 7-7
Season: 33-26
Around the 24 second mark, an unknown, but awesome, Phillies fan with a baby blue shirt with a giant P gives pitcher Chan Ho Park multiple high fives after being sprayed down with champagne. Sadly, this may be his life's finest moment...
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Arizona (+2.5) over SEATTLE- In both Seattle's wins this season, they have shut out their opponent. You can bet (and I will) that the same will not happen against Cards, who seem to have regained their offensive mojo against the Texans last week. In a week of very tough picks, this seems too easy.
Season: 3-0
“You Can Put It On The Board” Lock of the Week:
Houston (+5) over CINCINNATI- After three straight down to the wire wins against divisional opponents, the Bengals are in for a huge let-down game. Houston can score with the best of them, and will cover easily, if not win outright.
Season: 2-1
Kansas City (+7) over WASHINGTON- This is not a pick for Kansas City, it is a pick against Washington. After losing to the Giants in Week 1 by six, the Redskins have beaten St. Louis by 2, lost to Detroit by 5, beaten Tampa Bay by 3, and lost to Carolina by 3. What about those performances inspires someone to make them SEVEN POINT FAVORITES? This is the team that lost to the Detroit Lions and has beaten the league's worst two teams by a combined 5 points. No thanks.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Denver- Best stat I've heard this week: Kyle Orton is 18-2 as a starter at home. Watch out Trent Dilfer, he is quickly coming for your mantle as the NFL's best game manager, which entitles him to years and years of mockery. Fortunately for San Diego, the game is not in Denver, and the bubble has to burst eventually. This is the week for it.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina- Maybe I'm picking with my heart, but Josh Johnson has added a dimension to this team that they sorely lacked with Byron Leftwich; namely, a quarterbacks whose feet aren't stuck in concrete. More importantly, only a world-class masochist would take a Jake Delhomme-lead road favorite.
Buffalo (+10.5) over NY JETS- Something about this game screams close. I mean, Buffalo's vaunted D did hold the incomparable Derek Anderson to 17 yards passing last week.
JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) over St. Louis- I'm done falling into the trap of thinking St. Louis will keep it close. And it only took 2 shut outs in 5 weeks for me to realize the error of my ways.
ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago- Hate the Bears, love the Falcons.
Let's quick pick the rest, since I'm having a difficult enough time even picking winners.
Baltimore (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
Detroit (+15) over GREEN BAY
PITTSBURGH (-15) over Cleveland
Philadelphia (-15) over OAKLAND
NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Tennessee
N.Y. Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Season: 26-19
And there you have it. Five weeks into the season, and I have my first under .500 performance. It was bound to happen, but I still can't forgive the J-E-T-S, who squandered my hope of continuing my march towards respectability with a clunker against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, I believed in you, and you couldn't pull out a win against a team who doesn't even play with a quarterback? What is this world coming to?
While 6-8 doesn't hurt too terribly bad, it does bring the season record to 26-19, which sounds rather pedestrian. I will take pride in the fact that this week, both my Lock of the Week and Underdog to Win picks both came through again, and that on the season, I'm still perfect on the Underdogs.
Highlights:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Atlanta's offense coming alive? Check. San Fran's offense having trouble coming from behind? Check. Another underdog win? Check.
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?
1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.
But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Where to start with this game? How about we start, and end, with this statement: Tennessee is really, really bad, and this week, I promise I won't attempt to talk myself into taking them again.
DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.
Well, that is about exactly what happened. Big pat on the back.
ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.
Big fantasy games for Fitz and Andre Johnson, very respectable ones for Warner and Schaub, but an even bigger win for the Cardinals. Eventhough they are a half game behind, look like the front-runners in the NFC West, for what that's worth.
Lowlights (and there were a lot of them):
NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.
I guess if by swallowed up, I mean kept under 32 points, well then yes, they sure did get gobbled up.
New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.
Someone out there, who is much smarter than me, took the Broncos moneyline on this game. I would like to shake that man (or woman's) hand, because I didn't see this coming in a million years.
Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.
When you make a statement with three distinct parts to it and each one is completely and utterly wrong, what do you do? Move on!
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.
Not only did Cleveland stay close, but they won! With a quarterback who completed two passes all game! Maybe the good people in the NFL's two most blue-collar towns appreciate this kind of football, but I sure don't. Thank you for keeping it off my tv. Wow.
Will the betting gods spew down their wrath upon me for missing a week of picks, even if it was to satisfy betting's twin vice, drinking? After two straight weeks above .500, I'm expecting the worst. Without further ado:
Tom Nelson Underdog That Wins Outright:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Season: 2-0
"You Can Put It On the Board" Lock of the Week:
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?
1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.
But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Season: 1-1
Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.
New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.
DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY- What's the most positive thing that can be taken away from the Chiefs first four games? The almost beat the JaMarcus Russell-lead Raiders? They only lost the Giants by 11? Larry Johnson's body hasn't self-destructed yet? (wait, isn't that a negative). There are a lot of bad teams in this league, and the Chiefs are fighting hard for that number one spot.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-16) over Oakland- Out of all the bad decisions Al Davis has made over the past few years, getting rid of Jeff Garcia has got to be the worst. Now, instead of having the option of benching JaMarcus and his 44.5 passer rating and putting in a quarterback who has multiple Pro Bowl appearances, he gets to decide between Bruce Gradkowski (bad), Charlie Frye (badder) or sticking with JaMarcus (baddest). And this whole time you thought it was DHB's fault he wasn't catching balls?
ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.
NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.
Washington (+4) over CAROLINA- What do you do when two teams you hate and wouldn't ever trust to cover a spread play against each other? Take the points!
ST. LOUIS (+11) over Minnesota- One of these weeks, St. Louis will keep it competitive against a team not named the Redskins. Why will it be this week? No clue, other than the fact that I am a huge Steven Jackson apologist and I think he relishes the chance to go against another one of the league's best backs.
Tampa Bay (+16) over PHILADELPHIA- Tampa Bay has now lost games by 13, 13, 24, and 3. That means I have a ¾ chance of them covering, right?
BALTIMORE (-10) over Cincinatti- It was so hard to decide this game that I decided to sleep on it. And even that didn't help. So, I'll just give in and go with my first instinct. Let's go Ravens!
Season: 20-11
After a long weekend in Rome watching the Baseball World Cup and consuming large amounts of pizza followed by another long weekend in Munich watching girls dressed in dirndls and consuming large amounts of Bavarian hops, I'm finally back on the blogging wagon. My Switzerland experiment ends in three days, and once back in the States, I'll be able to watch sports at normal hours of the day and on a real television, so prepar
e yourself for the onslaught of knowledge that will be coming your way.
With the season a quarter of the way over for most NFL teams, this week's power rankings are complete with an interesting, humorous, or ridiculous stat for each team that may or may not have helped shape their season so far. In parenthesis are the team's rankings from two weeks ago, since last week at this time I was awash in a haze of liter beers, pretzels bigger than my head, the world's best chicken, and enough cleavage to turn Mike Piazza straight. PROST!
Rising: New England, (Bucky the) Broncos, Bungles, Jags, Dee-troit
Falling: (not so)Super Chargers, Dallas, B-Lo, Zona, Music City
1.New Orleans (two weeks ago: 1)- Imagine if the day after the 2006 draft, I would have told you that in 2009 Darren Sharper would have twice as many touchdowns as Reggie Bush. You would have believed me, right?
2.Indianapolis (4)- If Dallas Clark continues his current pace, his 1,456 receiving yards would smash the current record for tight ends.
3.NY Giants (3)- Steve Smith, projected totals: 136 catches, 1644 yards, 16 touchdowns.
4.New England (9)- Laurence Maroney has 78 yards rushing. In 4 games.
5.Batimore (2)- Willis McGahee has more score more offensive touchdowns than eight teams this season: Oakland, Carolina, Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona, Washington, and Buffalo.
6.Minnesota (10)- The Vikings leading receiver? Back-up running back Chester Taylor, with 18.
7.NY Jets (5)- Backup quarterback/converted wide receiver Brad Smith has more yards (42 to 23) and as many carries (4) as prized rookie Shonn Greene.
8.Denver (20)- Kyle Orton being Kyle Orton: not a lot of touchdowns (5 through 4 games) but no mistakes (0 turnovers).
9.Atlanta (6)- The heavier workload promised for Jerious Norwood? Not this year. Only three carries and five receptions in three games.
10. Philadelphia (14)- Good riddance LJ, hello Brent! Celek has 22 catches (10 more than any other Eagle), 245 yards, and 2 touchdowns, which puts him on pace for 117, 1307, and 11.
11.Cincinnatti (18)- With 367 yards, Cedric Benson is already almost halfway to his career-best (747 in 2008). And it only took him five years to figure out how to be an NFL running back!
12.San Francisco (11)- How big is the Michael Crabtree signing? Niners receivers have only caught 26 passes in four games, which is just over 6 per game.
13.Chicago (21)- Do I have to like Chicago? No. But do I have to finally recognize that they are a decent football team? I guess so. Cutler has spread the ball very democratically, with five Bears players already having 10 or more catches: Johnny Knox (15), Earl Bennett (14), Devin Hester (14), Matt Forte (13), Greg Olsen (10).
14.Green Bay (15)- Not necessarily known for his running ability, Aaron Rodgers in on pace for 416 rushing yards. Mostly out of neccessity, which is a bad thing for the Pack.
15.Pittsburgh (13)- Hines Ward has more receptions (26) and yards (355) than any other player wihtout a touchdown catch this season.
16.San Diego (7)- It would be impossible to imagine two years ago, but a team with LT has the worst rushing offense in the league, averaging a paltry 53.8 yards per game on the ground. The once incomparable LT has only 70 rushing yards for the whole season!
17.Dallas (10)- Felix Jones is picking up right where he left off last season, averaging an amazing 10.1 yards per carry (and then getting hurt).
18.Arizona (12)- The dynamic duo has yet to break out this season, with Fitzgerald averaging only 5.5 catches and 60 yards a game and Boldin averaging 5 and 57.
19.Jacksonville (27)- His name is Mike Sims-Walker. He played at Central Florida. And no, I had never heard of him before this season. But with 19 catches, 278 yards, and 3 touchdowns already, everyone ha
s heard of him now.
20.Houston (17)- Where have you gone, Steve Slaton? A 3.3 yards per carry average and one touchdown? Good thing Chris Brown is the only backup the Texans have.
21. Miami (19)- Talk about a dink and dunk offense. Not a single player with multiple receptions is averaging over 9.9 yards per reception, including speedster Ted Ginn Jr., whose game log reads: 2 receptions, 0 receptions, 11 receptions, 1 reception.
22. Buffalo (16)- Who needs Marshawn? Fred Jackson leads Buffalo in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and receiving touchdowns and is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage.
23. Seattle (22)- Surprisingly, Seattle leads the NFL in pass completions as a team, which would explain why it is the only team to have three players with 20 or more catches: Nate Burleson (24), TJ Houshmanzadeh (22) and John Carlson (20).
24. Detroit (31)- The only stat that matters in Detroit...1 win!
25. Carolina (25)- Jake Delhomme continues to be a trainwreck. He has three and a half times more interceptions than touchdown passes this season and a passer rating of 54.3...
26. Oakland (24)- ...which would be the lowest in the league for any starter except that Oakland continues to employ JaMarcus Russell. Russell has only one touchdown pass this year against 4 interceptions, but that isn't the worst part. In four games, he has a completion percentage of 39.8%, and has already had games of 12-30, 7-24, and 12-33. In the one game where he had a completion percentage of over 50% (12-21), he threw for only 61 yards and had two interceptions.
27. Washington (26)- Chris Cooley be
comes the fourth white tight end to get a mention in this column, and with good reason. His 22 receptions lead the team, and he is second in receiving yards (254) and tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns.
28. Tennessee (23)- At this time last year, Fat LenDale had 5 touchdowns. This season, LenDale Light has only 1.
29. Tampa Bay (28)- It doesn't matter who is at quarterback for the Bucs, their passing offense has been atrocious. Only two players have over 8 catches, tight end Kellen Winslow (17) and running back Cadillac Williams (12). Their wideouts have combined for 18 receptions. ALL SEASON!
30.Kansas City (29)- Has a player ever been given the ball more and continued to fail to produce? Larry Johnson's 72 carries have him tied for sixth in the league in attempts, yet his 189 yards have him ranked 31st and his 2.6 yards per carry rank last.
31.Cleveland (31)- The only two players to catch touchdown passes for the Browns this year: starting tight end Robert Royal and 33 year old South Dakota State product Steve Heiden, who can best be described as a back-up, back-up tight end.
32. St. Louis (30)- Only three players ON THE WHOLE TEAM have scored a point for the Rams this season; back-up tight end Daniel Fells, who has 2 touchdowns on 4 catches, kicker Josh Brown, who has three extra points and one field goal, and wideout Laurent Robinson, who is now on the IR.