And there you have it. Five weeks into the season, and I have my first under .500 performance. It was bound to happen, but I still can't forgive the J-E-T-S, who squandered my hope of continuing my march towards respectability with a clunker against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan, I believed in you, and you couldn't pull out a win against a team who doesn't even play with a quarterback? What is this world coming to?
While 6-8 doesn't hurt too terribly bad, it does bring the season record to 26-19, which sounds rather pedestrian. I will take pride in the fact that this week, both my Lock of the Week and Underdog to Win picks both came through again, and that on the season, I'm still perfect on the Underdogs.
Highlights:
Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO- San Fran has been a great early season story, and the Falcons have been underwhelming in their first three games. Coming off a bye, the Falcons will figure it out on offense, which is trouble for San Fran, whose offense isn't exactly high-powered. Money line this game.
Atlanta's offense coming alive? Check. San Fran's offense having trouble coming from behind? Check. Another underdog win? Check.
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE- Once again, I find myself believing that this could be the ultimate trap game. Why?
1.Tennessee absolutely needs a victory if they have any chance of turning their season around.
2.Indy has already has opened up a 2 game lead on the rest of the division and should be able to cruise for most of the year.
3.Tennessee is at home.
4.Tennessee is supposed to be the hard nosed, grind it out squad while Indy is supposed to be the finesse, shoot-out team. That usually spells disaster for a team like the Colts.
5.It is a divisional game, and Tennessee and Indy are known for having tight games.
But then I remind myself that Tennessee has gone 1-7 in their last 8 games dating back to Week 15 of last year and has the Kerry Collins-Justin Gage combo as their number one aerial option. Yep, I'm going with Peyton.
Where to start with this game? How about we start, and end, with this statement: Tennessee is really, really bad, and this week, I promise I won't attempt to talk myself into taking them again.
DETROIT (+11) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh has seemed shaky in all but one half this year (the first half against San Diego), and sits at a very average 2-2. And even though Detroit got hosed by Chicago in the first game PV (post-victory), they have at least shown life on offense. Pittsburgh will dominate the ball, and will be ahead all game, but a late rally by Detroit brings it to within 10.
Well, that is about exactly what happened. Big pat on the back.
ARIZONA (-6) over Houston- Yet another example of the awesomeness of fantasy football. Without it, the over/under for people interested in this game would be 50. But with fantasy studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johson, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton in play, the game becomes one of, if not the, most important game of the week. Those hoping for a shootout will get their wish, especially those waiting for the Cards offense to finally click. Warner and Fitz will fly high.
Big fantasy games for Fitz and Andre Johnson, very respectable ones for Warner and Schaub, but an even bigger win for the Cardinals. Eventhough they are a half game behind, look like the front-runners in the NFC West, for what that's worth.
Lowlights (and there were a lot of them):
NY Jets (pick'em) over MIAMI- With Chad Pennington, I think the Fins have a good shot at knocking off their division rivals. With Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Jeff George, or whoever they choose to trot out, the Dolphins will get swallowed up by Rex Ryan's defense.
I guess if by swallowed up, I mean kept under 32 points, well then yes, they sure did get gobbled up.
New England (-3) over DENVER- Even a 4-0 start and homefield advantage isn't enough to make bettors forget that Kyle Orton is at the helm of this “juggernaut”. The magic carpet ride ends here for Josh McDaniels and company.
Someone out there, who is much smarter than me, took the Broncos moneyline on this game. I would like to shake that man (or woman's) hand, because I didn't see this coming in a million years.
Jacksonville (pick'em) over SEATTLE- Remember when Seattle was a lock to win at home and a lock to loss on the road? Now, they are a lock to lose to any team with 11 breathing human beings on offense. Jacksonville continues its torrid pace by spanking the Hawks.
When you make a statement with three distinct parts to it and each one is completely and utterly wrong, what do you do? Move on!
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland- The “pouty, petulant, I-drop-too-many-passes” showdown we've all been waiting for took a major hit when Braylon was traded to the Jets on Thursday. While he may have been a distraction, and the Browns will be better in the long run, the loss of Edwards will make an offense that is averaging only 12 points per game that much worse. Buffalo, who is coming off two losses in which they played completely uninspired, is too good a team to let Cleveland stay close.
Not only did Cleveland stay close, but they won! With a quarterback who completed two passes all game! Maybe the good people in the NFL's two most blue-collar towns appreciate this kind of football, but I sure don't. Thank you for keeping it off my tv. Wow.
While I didn't match the sterling 12-4 record of last week, I did managed to break .500 once again. It may only be 8-7, but I'm riding high once again after nailing the Detroit win. One more week like this, and you can replace the world gambling with investing. May the Pabst continue to flow!
Highlights:
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh doesn't be
at anyone by more than three points. In fact, they don't even beat teams like Chicago anymore.
Or Cincinnati. Be very worried, Steel-town. You are oh so close to being 0-3. And it feels soooo good!
NY Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY- The NFL: Home to the transitive property. Tampa Bay lost to Dallas by 13. Dallas lost to New York Giants by 2. Tampa Bay loses to New York by 15 (or at least more than 7).
Did I write 15? Fingers must have slipped. I meant 24.
DETROIT (+7) over Washington- Washington hits rock bottom when it loses outright to the resident rock bottom dwellers Detroit Lions! There, I said it. It's on paper. And the delete key won't work, so let's move on.
Just like its namesake, the Tom Nelson Pick of the Week is not for the faint of heart. Go big of go home, and for the second straight week, I've nailed it. Nothing better than seeing the second-longest losing streak in NFL history snapped at the hands of the most boring, bland, utterly uninspiring football team in the league. Go Hogs!
NY JETS (-1.5) over Tennessee- Feels like a perfect trap game, with Tennessee absolutely needing a win and the Jets riding high after defeating the Pats. But...I can't get the image of the Titans defense absolutely self-destructin
g against Houston. Jets really start putting pressure on the rest of the AFC East by moving to 3-0.
How many former USC quarterbacks will become legitimate NFL starters before “The Chosen One” gets onto the field? Only two more years of beer bongs in the summer and clipboard- holding in the fall until Matt Barkley makes it three.
Lowlights:
HOUSTON (-3.5) over Jacksonville- Both Houston and Jacksonville are more than willing to give up 30 points to their opponents. Houston is capable of scoring 30 points. Jacksonville is not. That makes this pick easy.
Jacksonville 31, Houston 24. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Just plain wrong.
Cleveland (-14) over BALTIMORE- When #2 and #32 in your power rankings meet, the spread should be this big. But, for some odd reason, this....just...seems...too....high.
Tease the line 17 more points and my prediction would have been dead on!
OAKLAND 
(+1) over Denver- Ask yourself this: Is Denver good enough to be 3-0? If you're not laughing out loud, then you don't know football.
Now entered into the betting lexicon, the JakeMarcus Russhomme Collary: When deciding between a bad team and a really bad quarterback, pick the bad team. Always.
ARIZONA (-1.5) over Indianapolis - Both quarterbacks have two legitimate MVP's (Peyton's 2009 award ranks up there with Karl Malone in MVP travesties) and one Super Bowl ring. One quarterback has Anquan Boldin as his second wideout. The other has Pierre Garcon.
Guess its time to scrap that Peyton Manning-Kurt Warner comparison article I've been working on.
“Because life without accountability is far too enjoyable”
Not even a fantasy thrashing at the hands of Chris Johnson could quell the joy that radiated through the room last night as I struck gold with my first 2009 betting guide. Not only were the games yesterday awesome from a football perspective and a fantasy perspective (for owners of Matt Schaub, Frank Gore, and the aforementioned Chris Johnson), but also from a bankroll perspective. An 11-4 Sunday means Pabst for everyone!
Highlights:
St. Louis (+10.5) over WASHINGTON- St. Louis may be the worst team in football, but Washington isn't that far behind.
There is no quarterback that consistently delivers mediocrity like Jason Campbell. Three field goals later, the Redskins are making me look like Nostradamus.
Houston (+7.5) over TENNESSEE- How quickly all the hype surrounding the Texans has dissapated. I say not so fast. Houston not only covers, but wins outright.
Bingo Bango! Tom Nelson Underdog's now 1-0 thanks to Tennessee's Kris Kringle-esque generosity.
Arizona (+4.5) over JACKSONVILLE- Man, if this line doesn't prove the (presumed) supremacy of the AFC, I don't know what does. Last year's NFC champ is a 4.5 point underdog to a 5-11 squad? Say what you want about a Super Bowl hangover, but I'm flying high with the Cards this week. That +140 moneyline looks awfully tempting.
Had it not been such a gimme, I would have made the Cards my Tom Nelson pick of the week. Kurt Warner's near flawless performance made a mockery of a line that never should have been set that high to begin with.
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS- This has all the makings of a one point contest. Because of that, I'll take the points. (please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard, please hit the scoreboard.)
No drama with the scoreboard (boo!), no injuries to either team (boo!) but an almost perfect call with the prediction (yeah!)
Lowlights:
New England (-3) over NY JETS- Mark Sanchez may have bright future ahead of him, but this is still only his second NFL start. Or one less than the amount of SUPER BOWL STARTS for the man on the other side, Mr. Tom Brady.
That same Mr. Brady was unable to lead his team to a single touchdown for the first time since 2006. And Mr. Sanchez (he has earned it now) became only the second rookie quarterback since Big Ben (not bad company) to beat a Belicheck-lead Patriots squad.
Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO- I know it's early in the season, but Super Bowl participants don't seem to be getting enough respect. I have news for you all: Chicago is a farce. Pittsburgh rolls.
While I'll readily admit that I didn't see this coming (Pittsburgh was my Lock of the Week), this is a fluke, not a trend. Ironically enough, the Bears won because Cutler played like Kyle Orton, not like Jay Cutler. If you're a Steelers fan though, you have be worried about the offense, which has only managed 27 points through 2 games. And after watching Houston hang 34 on Tennessee's D, the excuse that they've played against two of the leagues' best defenses is rendered moot. If you're a Chicago fan, enjoy this victory, because it will be one of six you'll have all year.
